Price transmission in regional beef markets: Australia, China and Southeast Asia

Dong, Xiquan; Waldron, Scott A.; Zhang, Jing

doi:10.9755/ejfa.2018.v30.i2.1601

Cited by 11 publications

(10 citation statements)

References 17 publications

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“…Dentre os estudos analisados, o que mais se assemelha ao presente é o de Dong et al (2018), que avaliaram a transmissão de preço da carne bovina entre os mercados australiano, chinês e do sudeste asiático, com a diferença de terem se utilizado séries de preços da carne no varejo. Neste, os autores concluíram que o mercado da carne bovina australiana não transmitia preço aos mercados chinês e vietnamita, mas apontaram que o mercado australiano impactava nos preços da carne no mercado indonésio.…”

Section: Resultsunclassified

“…Os autores foram bastante criteriosos, e utilizaram dois tipos de teste para estacionariedade, o ADF e o deKwiatkowski, Phillips, Schmidt, Shin (1992), também conhecido por KPSS; e, também, dois testes para cointegração, neste caso, ode Engle e Granger (1987) ede Johansen (1988), e posteriormente testaram assimetria seguindo os procedimentos adotados por Enders e Siklos (2001).Santos, Dallemole e Manso (2017) também investigaram a relação do mercado do boi gordo com mercados de outras commodities agropecuárias e, encontraram cointegração entre os preços do boi gordo, do milho e da soja no estado do Mato Grosso. A metodologia utilizada foi a mais comumente trabalhada nos demais artigos, ou seja, a análise de estacionariedade, o teste de cointegração, a modelagem vetorial autorregressivo com correção de erros (VEC), a análise da decomposição da variância e de impulso-resposta.Internacionalmente, vale ressaltar a pesquisa recente deDong et al (2018), que avaliaram a transmissão de preços da carne bovina no varejo entre os mercados da Austrália, da China e do sudeste asiático. Nesta análise foram utilizados métodos tradicionalmente utilizados para a problemática da transferência de preços, mais precisamente, o teste de estacionariedade ADF, o teste de cointegraçãode Johansen (1988), a modelagem vetorial com correção de erros, o teste causalidade deGranger (1969) e a análise da função impulsoresposta Dong et al (2018).…”

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“…A metodologia utilizada foi a mais comumente trabalhada nos demais artigos, ou seja, a análise de estacionariedade, o teste de cointegração, a modelagem vetorial autorregressivo com correção de erros (VEC), a análise da decomposição da variância e de impulso-resposta.Internacionalmente, vale ressaltar a pesquisa recente deDong et al (2018), que avaliaram a transmissão de preços da carne bovina no varejo entre os mercados da Austrália, da China e do sudeste asiático. Nesta análise foram utilizados métodos tradicionalmente utilizados para a problemática da transferência de preços, mais precisamente, o teste de estacionariedade ADF, o teste de cointegraçãode Johansen (1988), a modelagem vetorial com correção de erros, o teste causalidade deGranger (1969) e a análise da função impulsoresposta Dong et al (2018). averiguaram que o impacto dos preços da carne bovina australiana nos mercados da China e do Vietnã não é significante, diferente do impacto destes nos preços da carne na Indonésia.…”

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Assimetria e transmissão de preços do boi gordo entre os mercados do Brasil, EUA e Australia

Caetano

Figueiredo

Neto

2019

BJD

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This study aims to analyze price transmission as well as the asymmetry in the transmission of beef cattle prices paid to the producer, among the main beef export markets; more precisely, Brazil, USA and Australia. By estimating an autoregressive vector model with error correction (VECM), it could be concluded that the beef cattle markets of the three main beef exporters in the world are integrated concerning the prices paid to the producers, even though there is a weak interdependence between these markets. By the Granger (1969) Causality test it was shown that Australian market volatility does not cause price changes in other markets, but changes in Brazilian beef prices cause changes in the US and Australian markets, also changes in US prices cause changes only in Australian prices. The test for asymmetry on the price transmission revealed that prices respond differently to increases or falls in other markets prices.

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Assimetria e transmissão de preços do boi gordo entre os mercados do Brasil, EUA e Australia

Caetano

Figueiredo

Neto

2019

BJD

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“…https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/pages/?page=about). Dong et al [22] and Ghoshray [23] scrutinized international market linkages, but they did not specify the underlying determinants for the intensity of international price volatility transmission, which we identify as a measure of self-sufficiency. In contrast, several studies inspect the volatility of transmissions of price from global to indigenous markets [24][25][26] by applying a vector error correction model (VECM).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Effectiveness of Self-Sufficiency Policy: International Price Transmissions in Beef Markets

Guo

Tanaka

2020

Sustainability

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International beef markets have shocked regional markets in importing countries due to unexpected events such as the COVID-19 epidemic, bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) and high prices for grain feed. After the global food price spikes in 2008, many national governments aimed to improve food self-sufficiency to secure food supply. However, the efficacy of food self-sufficiency policy, particularly that of meat products, is not fully understood. This paper investigates the causal nexus and estimates the degree of volatility transmissions between global and regional beef prices in 10 beef-importing nations for the period January 2006 to December 2013. Furthermore, we empirically analyze how beef self-sufficiency rates affect the correlations between global and local beef markets using a panel analysis. Our primary findings are: (1) Unidirectional causality from global to local markets was found for Georgia, the UK and the United States. Meanwhile, Japan is a large beef importer, and its price causally influences global prices; (2) We found that the interconnectivity between world and regional markets is relatively weak. Regional markets can absorb external shocks in the meat sector better than wheat because meat production is more flexible than grain production, which is heavily dependent on climatic conditions and (3) Empirical results provide strong indications that high self-sufficiency is useful in isolating local markets from global markets. The results obtained from our analysis are extremely useful for policymakers of national governments who desire to insulate domestic from international beef markets in an emergent situation.

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“…The importance of cross-border price co-movement research for the beef industry has been largely ignored, even though value chains (e.g., transport and food processing) have been disrupted by unexpected events such as BSE and COVID-19. However, the literature on price synchronisation within indigenous beef markets (i.e., relationships across farm-gate, wholesale and retail) is copious (Bakucs and Fertö, 2009;Boetel and Liu, 2010;Chang and Griffith, 1998;Dong et al, 2018;Fousekis et al, 2016;Goodwin and Holt 1998;Griffith and Piggott, 1994;Lloyd et al, 2006;Pozo et al, 2013;Saghaian, 2007;Sanjuan and Dawson, 2003). Although Dong et al (2018) analyse regional market associations among Australia, China, Indonesia and Vietnam, they do not inspect the links with the global market.…”

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International price volatility transmission and structural change: a market connectivity analysis in the beef sector

Tanaka

Guo

2020

Humanit Soc Sci Commun

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Despite the abundance of literature on agricultural price transmissions and unexpectedly disrupted value chains from infectious disease outbreaks such as bovine spongiform encephalopathy and COVID-19, the importance of research on price connectivity in the international beef markets has largely been ignored. To assess agricultural price transmission issues, error correction-type models (ECMs) have been predominantly employed. These models, however, suffer a deficiency in that the method is incapable of depicting time-variant linkages between prices. This article examines the connections between global and local prices, as well as price volatility in the beef sector. Our analysis uses a generalised autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) model with the dynamic conditional correlation (DCC) specification that enables us to identify market connection intensity dynamics. We pay assiduous attention to structural changes in the overall research processes to enhance the reliability of estimation. For the first time in meat or grain price transmission research, our autoregressive models have been developed with structural break dummy variables for DCC. The principal findings are that (1) local retail prices for Azerbaijan, Georgia, Japan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and the UK showed a structural change in mean or variance, all of which were identified after the global food crisis from 2007–2009, (2) international prices unidirectionally Granger-cause regional prices in Georgia, Tajikistan and the United States in both mean and volatility (accordingly, no country exhibited price or price-volatility transmission from regional to international markets), and (3) volatility liaisons between global and local beef markets are generally weak, but price volatility exhibited closer synchronisation around the 2008 global food crisis, which created structural changes during the period. This finding implies that national governments should shield domestic from global markets by implementing trade restrictions such as quotas or taxes in a global emergency.

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Price transmission in regional beef markets: Australia, China and Southeast Asia

Cited by 11 publications

References 17 publications

Assimetria e transmissão de preços do boi gordo entre os mercados do Brasil, EUA e Australia

Assimetria e transmissão de preços do boi gordo entre os mercados do Brasil, EUA e Australia

The Effectiveness of Self-Sufficiency Policy: International Price Transmissions in Beef Markets

International price volatility transmission and structural change: a market connectivity analysis in the beef sector

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