Prices of raw-wood assortments in selected markets of central Europe and their development in the future

Abstract

The aim of the paper is to evaluate the price development of timber assortments in selected countries in Central Europe, to compare the prices and identify the factors influencing the prices, and to quantify the extent of their impact on the prices. A further aim is to predict the price development based on comparing various models for predicting time series of prices. The analyses of the price development was carried out for the assortments of spruce, fir, and beech sawlogs in Slovakia, Czech Republic, and selected Austrian provinces. The analyzed period covered the years from 2001 to 2017 per individual months. Following the selected factors, the study was focused on the timber price development, and subsequently the prediction up to the end of 2019 was calculated. The most significant factor having a negative impact on the price development was the global economic crisis. Following all the prediction methods, the next two years can expect an increase in the prices of sawlogs, except the beech sawlogs in Austria. Analysis of the price developments in the selected countries confirmed that all global factors reflected the price level trends approximately equally in all countries.

Assessment of Climate Predictions for the Oued Laou watershed in Northern Morocco: A comparison of two predictive models

“…While time series models are widely used for forecasting in the forest sector ICCR'2 Some researchers found that the six-month ARIMA forecasts were the most accurate in predicting beech sawlog prices in Central Europe compared to linear and multivariate exponential smoothing models. As a result, they recommended that this model be used to guide management and trade decisions [13].…”

“…This estimation is typically done using Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE). Once the parameters are estimated, the model can be used for forecasting [13]. Θ_Q, ..., Θ_{Q*seasonal} are the parameters of the seasonal moving average part.…”

The Accuracy of CT Scanning in the Assessment of the Internal and External Qualitative Features of Wood Logs

“…The importance of the possibilities of deploying these innovative technologies in forestry operations is based on forecasts of the future development of raw-wood assortments prices [29] and requirements to ensure the sustainability of the industry [30].…”