Principles and practical application of the receiver-operating characteristic analysis for diagnostic tests

Greiner, Matthias; Pfeiffer, Dirk U.; Smith, Ralph A.

doi:10.1016/s0167-5877(00)00115-x

Cited by 1,680 publications

(1,289 citation statements)

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“…Utilising the guidelines suggested by Swets (1988), as reported by Greiner et al (2000), the basic model was less accurate, the progesterone models based on randomly monthly sampling (PLA m and CLA m ) were moderately accurate, and the models using all samples (PLA and CLA) were highly accurate. The sampling regime that was used here to calculate CLA and PLA, two to three samples per week, is impractical and expensive to apply in commercial herds.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Setting up an optimal milk progesterone cut-off values require information about the incidence of delayed cyclicity in the population and consequences or costs for false-negatives and false-positives (Greiner et al, 2000). In the validation dataset the incidence of delayed cyclicity was 18% and others have reported incidences of 11-20% (Opsomer et al, 1998;Royal et al, 2000;Garbarino et al, 2004), albeit with slightly different definitions of delayed cyclicity.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Detection of delayed cyclicity in dairy cows based on progesterone content in monthly milk samples

Petersson

Strandberg

Gustafsson

et al. 2008

Preventive Veterinary Medicine

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We examined whether infrequent milk sampling for progesterone analysis could be used as a management or diagnostic tool by the dairy farmer to predict delayed ovarian cyclicity in dairy cows. The data included 1040 lactations from 324 Swedish Red cows and 183 Swedish Holstein cows and were randomly divided into two datasets. A logistic regression model was fit to the first dataset and the model was then validated on the other dataset. The model was also validated using a British dataset comprising 1212 lactations from 1080 British Holstein-Friesian cows. The dependent variable was whether delayed ovarian cyclicity occurred or not, delayed ovarian cyclicity defined as progesterone levels below threshold value for the first 56 or 45 days postpartum in the Swedish or British dataset, respectively. The basic model included the effects of breed, parity, season and housing type. To the basic model various progesterone-based measurements were added. These were the interval from calving to commencement of luteal activity and the percentage of samples with luteal activity within 60 days after calving, using all samples in the databases or one sample per month. The accuracy of the conditional probability of delayed ovarian cyclicity calculated with the different models was obtained using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and calculating the area under curve. Sensitivity and specificity were calculated for cut-off probabilities using the ROC analyses. The accuracy was highest (0.94-0.99) when including the progesterone measurements based on milk sampling for progesterone analysis 2-3 times per week. The accuracy was between 0.85 and 0.88 when the progesterone measurements with monthly milk sampling were added to the model and 0.76 or 0.67 with the basic model. This study clearly shows that infrequent milk sampling for progesterone analysis, such as once a month as in the regular milk recording system, could be used to predict delayed ovarian cyclicity in dairy cows. This increases the opportunity for earlier treatment of anovulatory dairy cows and may therefore decrease involuntarily extended calving intervals in the herd.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Detection of delayed cyclicity in dairy cows based on progesterone content in monthly milk samples

Petersson

Strandberg

Gustafsson

et al. 2008

Preventive Veterinary Medicine

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“…The optimal cutoff for blood lactate was selected by a criterion of equal sensitivity and specificity,18 whereas the mucous membranes were considered abnormal if any of the following adjectives were used to describe them in the medical record: bright pink, injected, purple, muddy, toxic, red, or white. Mucous membranes described as pale pink or icteric were not considered abnormal for this study.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Differences between survivors and nonsurvivors for the admission SIRS criteria values were assessed by the Mann–Whitney test. The optimal cutoffs for the heart rate, respiratory rate, and lactate were computed by a criterion based on the equality of sensitivity and specificity 18. As specificity might not be exactly equal to sensitivity, the absolute value of the difference between them is minimized.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Prognostic Value and Development of a Scoring System in Horses With Systemic Inflammatory Response Syndrome

Roy

Kwong

Lambert

et al. 2017

Veterinary Internal Medicne

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BackgroundDespite its widespread use in equine medicine, the clinical value of the systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) concept in horses remains unknown.ObjectivesTo study the prognostic value of measures of SIRS in horses and identify the best model of severe SIRS to predict outcome.AnimalsA total of 479 consecutive adult horse emergency admissions to a private primary referral practice.MethodsProspective observational study. All adult horses admitted for emergency treatment over the study period were included. Multivariate logistic regression and stepwise model selection were used.ResultsEach of the 4 SIRS criteria was associated with outcome in this population. Thirty‐one percent of emergency cases had 2 or more abnormal SIRS criteria on admission and were defined as SIRS cases. SIRS was associated with increased odds of death (odds ratio [OR] = 8.22; 95% CI, 4.61–15.18; P < .001), an effect mainly found for acute gastrointestinal cases. SIRS cases were assigned a SIRS score of 2, 3, or 4, according to the number of abnormal SIRS criteria fulfilled on admission, and SIRS3 and SIRS4 cases had increased odds of death compared to SIRS2 cases (OR = 4.45; 95% CI, 1.78–11.15; P = .002). A model of severe SIRS including the SIRS score, blood lactate concentration, and color of the mucous membranes best predicted outcome in this population of horses.Conclusions and Clinical ImportanceSystemic inflammatory response syndrome is associated with an increased risk of death in adult horses presenting with acute gastrointestinal illnesses. The model of severe SIRS proposed in this study could be used to assess the status and prognosis of adult equine emergency admissions.

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“…A random forest model for water/non-water was built from the band or index values associated with randomly selected training points (~500 each for water and non-water). We identified an optimal threshold value using ROC analysis to determine the probability of membership in the water class that maximized the true positive rate and minimized the false positive rate (Greiner et al, 2000). The image was then reclassified using the optimized threshold to generate a water/non-water classification.…”

Section: Comparison Of Methods To Identify Water Vs Non-watermentioning

confidence: 99%

Three decades of Landsat-derived spring surface water dynamics in an agricultural wetland mosaic; Implications for migratory shorebirds

Schaffer‐Smith

Swenson

Barbaree

et al. 2017

Remote Sensing of Environment

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Satellite measurements of surface water offer promise for understanding wetland habitat availability at broad spatial and temporal scales; reliable habitat is crucial for the persistence of migratory shorebirds that depend on wetland networks. We analyzed water extent dynamics within wetland habitats at a globally important shorebird stopover site for a 1983-2015 Landsat time series, and evaluated the effect of climate on water extent. A range of methods can detect open water from imagery, including supervised classification approaches and thresholds for spectral bands and indices. Thresholds provide a time advantage; however, there is no universally superior index, nor single best threshold for all instances. We used random forest to model the presence or absence of water from >6200 reference pixels, and derived an optimal water probability threshold for our study area using receiver operating characteristic curves. An optimized mid-infrared (1.5-1.7 μm) threshold identified open water in the Sacramento Valley of California at 30-m resolution with an average of 90% producer's accuracy, comparable to approaches that require more intensive user input. SLC-off Landsat 7 imagery was integrated by applying a customized interpolation that mapped water in missing data gaps with 99% user's accuracy. On average we detected open water on ~26000 ha (~3% of the study area) in early April at the peak of shorebird migration, while water extent increased five-fold after the migration rush. Over the last three decades, late March water extent declined by ~1300 ha per year, primarily due to changes in the extent and timing of agricultural flood-irrigation. Water within shorebird habitats was significantly associated with an index of water availability at the peak of migration. Our approach can be used to optimize thresholds for time series analysis and near-real-time mapping in other regions, and requires only marginally more time than generating a confusion matrix.

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Principles and practical application of the receiver-operating characteristic analysis for diagnostic tests

Cited by 1,680 publications

References 50 publications

Detection of delayed cyclicity in dairy cows based on progesterone content in monthly milk samples

Detection of delayed cyclicity in dairy cows based on progesterone content in monthly milk samples

Prognostic Value and Development of a Scoring System in Horses With Systemic Inflammatory Response Syndrome

Three decades of Landsat-derived spring surface water dynamics in an agricultural wetland mosaic; Implications for migratory shorebirds

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