C ardiovascular diseases (CVD) are increasingly an urgent and major global public health problem. As the leading cause of death, disability, and health expenditures in the world, CVD claimed more than 17 million deaths in 2004, including 7.2 million from coronary heart disease (CHD) and 5.7 million from stroke. 1 More than 80% of the mortality from CVD occurs in low-and middle-income countries where dramatic increases in the prevalence of risk factors for atherosclerotic vascular disease, largely due to changes in diet, exercise, and tobacco use are occurring in the setting of increased urbanization of the population. Unfortunately, the health care systems and resources in these countries are not well developed and directed toward dealing with this growing health care burden.
Article see p 243China, with a rapidly developing economy and the most populous nation in the world, experienced more than a doubling of CHD mortality from 1985 to 2005. 2 More then 230 million Chinese have some form of CVD, resulting in an annual toll of 2 million myocardial infarctions, 7 million strokes, and 3 million deaths. The prevalence of risk factors that can lead to future CVD events is staggering, as 200 million Chinese have either high blood pressure or high blood cholesterol, and 350 million are current smokers. 3 The prevalence of diabetes, another major risk factor for CVD, has steadily increased among men and women in China and is now a substantial public health problem claiming more than 90 million adults with diabetes and nearly 150 million with prediabetes. 4 Given these baseline data, information on the impact of ongoing demographic changes and future CVD risk factor trends is essential for China to mount effective programs to counteract the growing pandemic of CVD.In this issue of Circulation: Cardiovascular Quality and Outcomes, Moran et al report the results from the CHD Policy-China, a Markov computer simulation model of CVD in adult Chinese. 5 They used the International Collaborative Study of Cardiovascular Disease in Asia Study (InterASIA) along with data from other studies to estimate means and proportions of risk factors and CVD (coronary heart disease and stroke) events. Their analysis predicts that an alarming increase in CVD events (Ͼ50%) will occur in China between 2010 and 2030, based on aging and growth of the population if the risk factor profile of the country remains at its current level. If the projected unfavorable trends in blood pressure, cholesterol, body mass index, and obesity are taken into consideration, it is predicted that an increase of more than 21 million CVD events and 8 million CVD deaths will occur. These unfavorable results will only be partially offset by the current trends of decreased tobacco smoking. However, as noted by Moran et al, this burgeoning epidemic can be averted if more intensive measures in prevention are implemented. The authors observe that a more aggressive tobacco control policy that would lower active smoking prevalence to 20% by 2020, the current prevalence in the...