Prior expectations about own abilities bias self-belief formation and hinder subsequent revision

Abstract

Self-beliefs hinge on social feedback, but their formation and revision are not solely based on new information. Biases, such as confirming initial expectations, can lead to inaccurate self-beliefs. This study uses computational modeling to explore how initial expectations and confidence affect self-belief formation and revision in novel behavioral domains. In the first session, participants developed performance self-beliefs through trial-by-trial feedback. In the second session, feedback contingencies were reversed, requiring belief revision for accurate self-beliefs. Results showed a confirmation bias in belief updating, with initial expectations being linked to biased learning during both formation and revision. Higher confidence was associated with reduced belief revision and on average, self-beliefs persisted despite the conflicting evidence. This study extends the literature on confirmation bias to learning in uncharged, novel behavioral domains. Further, it demonstrates the importance of initial expectations and associated confidence for biased self-belief formation and subsequent learning.