The United States Postal Service (USPS) plans to purchase
165,000
next-generation delivery vehicles (NGDVs) between 2023 and 2032. The
USPS submitted an environmental impact statement (EIS) for two NGDV
procurement scenarios: (1) 90% internal combustion engine vehicles
(ICEVs) and 10% battery electric vehicles (BEVs) (“ICEV scenario”)
and (2) 100% BEVs (“BEV scenario”). To correct several
significant deficiencies in the EIS, we conduct a cradle-to-grave
life cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) assessment of these two scenarios.
Our analysis improves upon the USPS’s EIS by including vehicle
production and end-of-life emissions, future grid decarbonization,
and more accurate vehicle operating emissions. In our base case, we
find that the ICEV and BEV scenarios would result in 15% greater and
8% fewer GHG emissions, respectively, than the USPS estimate. Favorable
vehicle and grid development would result in 63% lower BEV scenario
emissions than the USPS estimate. Consequently, we calculate a cumulative
lifetime emission reduction of 57–82% (14.7–21.4 Mt
CO2e) from procuring 100% BEVs instead of 10% BEVs, compared
to the USPS’s estimate of 10.3 Mt. Given the long NGDV lifetimes,
committing to the ICEV scenario squanders an ideal use case for BEVs,
jeopardizes meeting our climate goals, and forgoes potential climate
and environmental justice co-benefits.