Priority Setting and Integrated Assessment of Transportation System Vulnerabilities to Deep Uncertainties

Abstract

Deep uncertainty suggests situations in which the parties to a decision lack consensus on 1) the structural models to describe interactions among a system's variables, 2) the stochastic models to represent uncertainty about key parameters in the models, and 3) the methodologies to value the desirability of alternative outcomes. Deep uncertainties need to be addressed in strategic planning and priority-setting for transportation systems. In this context, traditional economic analysis and risk analysis of particular uncertainties can be prohibitive due to sparse data, complex models, and unforeseen interactions of climate change with other stressors.Nevertheless, decision-makers and planners need to assess the system vulnerability and allocate ii