The effect of sanctions on subsequent criminal activity is of central theoretical importance in criminology. A key question for juvenile justice policy is the degree to which serious juvenile offenders respond to sanctions and/or treatment administered by the juvenile court. The policy question germane to this debate is finding the level of confinement within the juvenile justice system that maximizes the public safety and therapeutic benefits of institutional confinement. Unfortunately, research on this issue has been limited with regard to serious juvenile offenders. We use longitudinal data from a large sample of serious juvenile offenders from two large cities to 1) estimate a causal treatment effect of institutional placement, as opposed to probation, on future rate of rearrest and 2) investigate the existence of a marginal effect (i.e., benefit) for longer length of stay once the institutional placement decision had been made. We accomplish the latter by determining a doseresponse relationship between the length of stay and future rates of rearrest and self-reported offending. The results suggest that an overall null effect of placement exists on future rates of rearrest or self-reported offending for serious juvenile offenders. We also find that, for the group placed out of the community, it is apparent that little or no marginal benefit exists for longer lengths of stay. Theoretical, empirical, and policy issues are outlined.
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Author ManuscriptCriminology. Author manuscript; available in PMC 2010 January 4. Recent policies have narrowed the jurisdiction of juvenile court by removing the most serious offenders through various mechanisms, which include waiver, statutory exclusion, and lowering the age of majority (Fagan, 2008;Feld, 1998Feld, , 1999Griffin, 2003;Zimring, 1998). These changes have been occurring in an ongoing cycle for nearly three decades, capped by a frenzy in the 1990s, when virtually every state acted in some way to "toughen up" laws governing the processing of serious juvenile offenders. The removal of many serious offenders from juvenile court jurisdiction has raised basic questions about the viability of the juvenile court itself (Fagan, Kupchik, and Liberman, 2007). Given this political environment, demonstrating the effectiveness of the juvenile courts' treatment and confinement practices is essential for informed debate about future juvenile justice policy.It is important to understand what prompted all this change in the first place. In reaction to increases in rates of youth violence in the 1980s (Blumstein and Wallman, 2000), both policy makers and the public lost confidence in the capacity of the juvenile court to fulfill its mission of effectively treating and/or deterring serious juvenile offenders from committing future crimes (Moon, Cullen, and Wright, 2003). Zimring (1998) suggests that the perception of leniency led to a related perception of increased public safety risks. Perceived short stays in juvenile facilities also offended the popular and...