Proactive policy options for drought resilience in the Sahel region

Boukary, Aboubakr Gambo; Garba, Issa; Abdourahamane, Zakari Seybou; Mirzabaev, Alisher

doi:10.1016/j.jaridenv.2023.105054

Cited by 1 publication

(1 citation statement)

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“…In recent years, climate change impacts such as drought, coupled with unsustainable anthropological activities such as intensified agriculture and deforestation have been reported to be negatively affecting proper functioning of ecosystems (Boukary et al, 2023). Various scholars such as Fontaine & Steinemann (2009); Nurbekov & Mirzabaev (2017); Tsakiris et al (2013) have argued that climate change has significantly altered hydro-meteorological processes such as precipitation incidence and this has exacerbated natural disasters such as drought.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evidence of increasing water scarcity due to frequent drought under SSP2-4.5 climate change scenario in the Western Cape Province, South Africa

Ngwenya,

Busayo,

Simatele

2024

Preprint

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Prolonged droughts can create severe water scarcity that can negatively affect sustainable human-environment interactions. In the Western Cape Province (WCP), South Africa, prolonged drought episodes are aggravating water scarcity and adversely affecting agricultural production. This study aimed to explore water resources sustainability in agroecological zones (AEZs) of the WC province. To this end, historical (1991–2020) and future (2021–2050) precipitation datasets under the SSP2-4.5 climate scenario were obtained from the sixth version of Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate, (MIROC6). Using the Reliability (Rel.) − Resilience (Res.) − Vulnerability (Vul.) framework and Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), the sustainability index (SI) was used to quantify water availability conditions in different AEZs using the geometric mean method. The Mann-Kendall (M-K) test was applied to investigate the trends at a significance level of p < 0.05. The findings show that between 2021 and 2050 under the SSP2-4.5 climate scenario drought conditions will exacerbate water scarcity in AEZs compared to the historical observations. The results indicate that in arid climates, future SI, exhibited moderate water shortage (0.60 < SI < 0.80), while in semiarid climates future SI values, exhibited mild water shortages (0.62 < SI < 0.71); while in the humid climates, future SI values projected normal to above normal water availability condition (0.52 < SI < 0.58). Overall, trend analysis indicated non-insignificant positive vulnerability trends and significant negative trends for both reliability and resilience indicator. This study provides policy interventions and can foster development pathways to attaining the Sustainable Development Goals from a water and climate action perspective.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%