Probabilistic access forecasting for improved offshore operations

Gilbert, Ciaran; Browell, Jethro; McMillan, David

doi:10.1016/j.ijforecast.2020.03.007

Cited by 18 publications

(9 citation statements)

References 40 publications

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“…On the same subject, Gilbert et al (2020b) use statistical post-processing of numerical wave predictions to produce probabilistic forecasts of wave heights, wave periods and wave direction and a logistic regression to determine the regime of the variables. They further applied the Gaussian copula to model temporal dependency but this did not improve their probabilistic forecasts of wave heights and periods.…”

Section: Wave Forecasting 123mentioning

confidence: 99%

Forecasting: theory and practice

Petropoulos,

Apiletti,

Assimakopoulos

et al. 2020

Preprint

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Forecasting has always been in the forefront of decision making and planning. The uncertainty that surrounds the future is both exciting and challenging, with individuals and organisations seeking to minimise risks and maximise utilities. The lack of a free-lunch theorem implies the need for a diverse set of forecasting methods to tackle an array of applications. This unique article provides a non-systematic review of the theory and the practice of forecasting. We offer a wide range of theoretical, state-of-the-art models, methods, principles, and approaches to prepare, produce, organise, and evaluate forecasts. We then demonstrate how such theoretical concepts are applied in a variety of real-life contexts, including operations, economics, finance, energy, environment, and social good. We do not claim that this review is an exhaustive list of methods and applications. The list was compiled based on the expertise and interests of the authors. However, we wish that our encyclopedic presentation will offer a point of reference for the rich work that has been undertaken over the last decades, with some key insights for the future of the forecasting theory and practice.

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Section: Wave Forecasting 123mentioning

confidence: 99%

Forecasting: theory and practice

Petropoulos,

Apiletti,

Assimakopoulos

et al. 2020

Preprint

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Developments are also underway to provide more accurate, longer forecasts, with more spatial resolution and quantified uncertainty. 9 Application of our findings to larger vessels is also of significant importance. Service operation vessels (SOVs) are increasingly used for service activities at large sites further from shore, and some findings from CTV analysis should be applicable.…”

mentioning

confidence: 77%

SPOWTT: Improving the safety and productivity of offshore wind technician transit

et al. 2021

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This paper describes the SPOWTT project. The intention of this project was to understand how sailing by crew transfer vessel (CTVs) to offshore wind farms affects the mental and physical wellbeing of individuals on board. The focus was on quantifying this impact, understanding the key drivers, with an aim to ensuring personnel can arrive to the wind turbines in a fit state to work safely and effectively. Impacts looked at subjective state beyond simply vomiting. Key results include the ability now to predict vessel motions from given Metocean conditions and vessel designs. We also discovered that the impact of vessel motions on seasickness is different for different symptoms and is driven not only by vertical z-axis accelerations but also by certain frequencies of motion in the y-axis. Frequencies other than 0.16 Hz were found to be impactful, and x-axis movements appeared to have a longer-lasting effect on the day's work. Through the formulation of a new, evidence-based understanding of seasickness, we have created an operational planning tool, designed to have a direct benefit on the safety and productivity of offshore wind farm operations.

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“…Missed maintenance opportunities, combined with frequent mission aborts, inflict substantial maintenance costs. As offshore farms continue to be placed in remote locations, formally accounting for access information will play an increasingly critical role in offshore maintenance [31].…”

Section: B Exhaustive Experimentsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Seizing Opportunity: Maintenance Optimization in Offshore Wind Farms Considering Accessibility, Production, and Crew Dispatch

Papadopoulos

Coit

Azizezzat

2022

IEEE Trans. Sustain. Energy

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Operations and Maintenance (O&M) constitute a major contributor to offshore wind's cost of energy. Due to the harsh and remote environment in which offshore turbines operate, there has been a growing interest in opportunistic maintenance scheduling for offshore wind farms, wherein grouping maintenance tasks is incentivized at times of opportunity. Our survey of the literature, however, reveals that there is no unified consensus on what constitutes an "opportunity" for offshore maintenance. We therefore propose an opportunistic maintenance scheduling approach which defines an opportunity as either dispatch-based (initiated by a maintenance crew already dispatched to a neighboring turbine), production-based (initiated by projected low production levels), or access-based (initiated by a provisionally open window of turbine access). We formulate the problem as a rolling-horizon mixed integer linear program, and propose an iterative solution algorithm to identify the optimal hourly maintenance schedule, which is found to be drastically different, yet substantially better, than those obtained using offshore-insensitive strategies. Extensive evaluations on actual wind, wave, and power data demonstrate substantial margins of improvement achieved by our proposed approach, across a wide variety of key O&M metrics.

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Probabilistic access forecasting for improved offshore operations

Cited by 18 publications

References 40 publications

Forecasting: theory and practice

Forecasting: theory and practice

SPOWTT: Improving the safety and productivity of offshore wind technician transit

Seizing Opportunity: Maintenance Optimization in Offshore Wind Farms Considering Accessibility, Production, and Crew Dispatch

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