Probabilistic analysis of extreme regional meteorological droughts by L-moments in a semi-arid environment

Abolverdi, Javad; Khalili, Davar

doi:10.1007/s00704-010-0265-z

Cited by 23 publications

(12 citation statements)

References 49 publications

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“…As a result it is important to examine appropriateness of this type of data for inclusion in the SPI analysis. Additional information on selection of rainy months can be found in Abolverdi and Khalili (2010). For the purposes of the present study, the boxplot scheme (Tukey 1977), has been used for monthly data selection.…”

Section: Selection Of Rainy Monthsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Utilization of Time-Based Meteorological Droughts to Investigate Occurrence of Streamflow Droughts

Tabrizi

Khalili

Kamgar-Haghighi

et al. 2010

Water Resour Manage

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Complexities of streamflow drought analyses motivate utilization of simple, alternative methods, which can provide timely information for effective water resources management. For this purpose time-based meteorological drought characteristics, identified by SPI 3−month , SPI 6−month and SPI Anuual are investigated. A boxplot approach is used to exclude non-rainy months from the analysis. Streamflow drought characteristics are described by drought intensities, and are calculated by the threshold level method. The non-parametric Wilcoxon-Mann-Whitney test is used to investigate relations between streamflow drought intensities and SPI 3−month , SPI 6−month and SPI Anuual . The study area is the Doroodzan Watershed and Reservoir in southwestern Iran, with four rain gauge and two hydrometric stations. According to the results, most of time-based SPI values show significant relations (at 5% level of significance) with streamflow drought intensities. However, the most significant relation is between SPI Anuual of Jamalbeik rain gauge station (centrally located in the study area) and drought intensities of Chamriz hydrometric station (located at the reservoir inlet). Comparison of study results with available records of documented droughts, confirms applicability of the proposed procedures. The SPI Anuual is based on one-year-ahead moving average rainfalls. Then, SPI Anuual of Jamalbeik station can be used to investigate occurrence of streamflow drought in Chamriz hydrometric station.

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Section: Selection Of Rainy Monthsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Utilization of Time-Based Meteorological Droughts to Investigate Occurrence of Streamflow Droughts

Tabrizi

Khalili

Kamgar-Haghighi

et al. 2010

Water Resour Manage

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“…The remaining data time series, usually for a period less than the 12-month period is used to perform the analyses. A similar procedure was adapted by Abolverdi and Khalili (2010) and Tabrizi et al (2010). Additional details are provided in the Section 4.…”

Section: Selection Of Rainy Monthsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The SPI has been used quite extensively, addressing a variety of drought related issues worldwide. Some of the more recent research efforts on SPI in Iran include and are not limited to; Morid et al (2006), Raziei et al (2009), Modarres (2010), Abolverdi and Khalili (2010) and Tabrizi et al (2010). As an alternative meteorological drought index, the reconnaissance drought index (RDI) was proposed by Tsakiris and Vangelis (2005), utilizing the ratios of precipitation over reference crop evapotranspiration (ET 0 ) for different time scales, to be representative of the region of interest.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Comparability Analyses of the SPI and RDI Meteorological Drought Indices in Different Climatic Zones

Khalili

Farnoud

Jamshidi

et al. 2011

Water Resour Manage

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Comparability analyses are performed to investigate similarities/differences of the standard precipitation index (SPI) and the reconnaissance drought index (RDI), respectively, utilizing precipitation and ratio of precipitation over potential evapotranspiration (ET 0 ). Data are from stations with different climatic conditions in Iran. Drought characteristics of the 3-month, 6-month and annual SPI and RDI time series are developed and Markov chain order dependencies are investigated by the Log-likelihood, AIC and BIC tests. Steady state probabilities and Markov chain characteristics, i.e., expected residence time in different drought classes and time to reach "Near Normal" class are investigated. According to results, both indices exhibit an overall similar behaviour; particularly, they follow the first order Markov chain dependency. However, climatic variability may produce some differences. In several cases, the "Extremely Dry" class has received a more critical value by RDI. Furthermore, the expected residence time of "Near Normal" class and expected time to reach "Near Normal" class are quite different in a number of cases. The results show that the RDI by utilizing the ET 0 can be very sensitive to climatic variability. This is rather important, since if the drought analyses are for agricultural applications, utilization of the RDI would seem to serve a better purpose.

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“…Since its theoretical advantages over other regionalization approaches, the L‐moments method has been widely used in regional frequency analysis for floods (Noto and Loggia, ; Seckin et al ., ), extreme rainfall (Parida and Moalafhi, ; Ngongondo et al ., ), droughts (Abolverdi and Khalili, ; Eslamian et al ., ), natural flow regime (Shiau and Wu, ), wave heights (Ma et al ., ), and low flow (Chen et al . ; Modarres, ; Shi et al ., ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Application of L‐moments and Bayesian inference for low‐flow regionalization in Sefidroud basin, Iran

Dodangeh

Soltani

Sarhadi

et al. 2013

Hydrological Processes

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Reliable estimation of low flows at ungauged catchments is one of the major challenges in water‐resources planning and management. This study aims at providing at‐site and ungauged sites low‐flow frequency analysis using regionalization approach. A two‐stage delineating homogeneous region is proposed in this study. Clustering sites with similar low‐flow L‐moment ratios is initially conducted, and L‐moment‐based discordancy and heterogeneity measures are then used to detect unusual sites. Based on the goodness‐of‐fit test statistic, the best‐fit regional model is identified in each hydrologically homogeneous region. The relationship between mean annual 7‐day minimum flow and hydro‐geomorphic characteristics is also constructed in each homogeneous region associated with the derived regional model for estimating various low‐flow quantiles at ungauged sites. Uncertainty analysis of model parameters and low‐flow estimations is carried out using the Bayesian inference. Applied in Sefidroud basin located in northwestern Iran, two hydrologically homogeneous regions are identified, i.e. the east and west regions. The best‐fit regional model for the east and west regions are generalized logistic and Pearson type III distributions, respectively. The results show that the proposed approach provides reasonably good accuracy for at‐site as well as ungauged‐site frequency analysis. Besides, interval estimations for model parameters and low flows provide uncertainty information, and the results indicate that Bayesian confidence intervals are significantly reduced when comparing with the outcomes of conventional t‐distribution method. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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Probabilistic analysis of extreme regional meteorological droughts by L-moments in a semi-arid environment

Cited by 23 publications

References 49 publications

Utilization of Time-Based Meteorological Droughts to Investigate Occurrence of Streamflow Droughts

Utilization of Time-Based Meteorological Droughts to Investigate Occurrence of Streamflow Droughts

Comparability Analyses of the SPI and RDI Meteorological Drought Indices in Different Climatic Zones

Application of L‐moments and Bayesian inference for low‐flow regionalization in Sefidroud basin, Iran

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