Probabilistic analysis of rain-triggered lahar initiation at Tungurahua volcano

Jones, Randolph A.; Manville, V.; Andrade, S. Daniel

doi:10.1007/s00445-015-0946-7

Cited by 31 publications

(36 citation statements)

References 67 publications

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“…Various attempts have been made to define lahar initiation rainfall thresholds at different volcanoes (i.e., Lavigne et al, 2000;van Westen and Daag, 2005;Barclay et al, 2007;Jones et al, 2015Jones et al, , 2017, including Volcán de Colima (Capra et al, 2010). This study focused on better prediction of lahar evolution during extraordinary hydro-meteorological events such as hurricanes, a common long-duration and large-scale rainfall phenomenon in tropical latitudes.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…A similar event was observed in 2005, when tropical storm Stan triggered landslides and debris flows from the Tolimán Volcano (Guatemala), causing more than 400 fatalities in the Panabaj community (Sheridan et al, 2007). Other examples can be found at the Pinatubo (Philippines), Merapi and Semeru (Indonesia), Soufriére Hills (Montserrat) and Tungurahua (Ecuador) volcanoes, where tropical storms and heavy rainfall seasons have triggered high-frequency lahar events (Umbal and Rodolfo, 1996;Lavigne et al, 2000;Lavigne and Thouret, 2002;Barclay et al, 2007;Dumaisnil et al, 2010;de Bélizal et al, 2013;Jones et al, 2015).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Hydrological control of large hurricane-induced lahars: evidence from rainfall-runoff modeling, seismic and video monitoring

Capra

Coviello

Borselli

et al. 2018

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. The Volcán de Colima, one of the most active volcanoes in Mexico, is commonly affected by tropical rains related to hurricanes that form over the Pacific Ocean. In 2011 hurricanes Jova, Manuel and Patricia, respectively, triggered tropical storms that deposited up to 400 mm of rain in 36 h, with maximum intensities of 50 mm h −1 . The effects were devastating, with the formation of multiple lahars along La Lumbre and Montegrande ravines, which are the most active channels in sediment delivery on the southsouthwest flank of the volcano. Deep erosion along the river channels and several marginal landslides were observed, and the arrival of block-rich flow fronts resulted in damages to bridges and paved roads in the distal reaches of the ravines. The temporal sequence of these flow events is reconstructed and analyzed using monitoring data (including video images, seismic records and rainfall data) with respect to the rainfall characteristics and the hydrologic response of the watersheds based on rainfall-runoff numerical simulation. For the studied events, lahars occurred 5-6 h after the onset of rainfall, lasted several hours and were characterized by several pulses with block-rich fronts and a maximum flow discharge of 900 m 3 s −1 . Rainfall-runoff simulations were performer using the SCS-curve number and the Green-Ampt infiltration models, providing a similar result in the detection of simulated maximum watershed peaks discharge. Results show different behavior for the arrival times of the first lahar pulses that correlate with the simulated catchment's peak discharge for La Lumbre ravine and with the peaks in rainfall intensity for Montegrande ravine. This different behavior is related to the area and shape of the two watersheds. Nevertheless, in all analyzed cases, the largest lahar pulse always corresponds with the last one and correlates with the simulated maximum peak discharge of these catchments. Data presented here show that flow pulses within a lahar are not randomly distributed in time, and they can be correlated with rainfall peak intensity and/or watershed discharge, depending on the watershed area and shape. This outcome has important implications for hazard assessment during extreme hydro-meteorological events, as it could help in providing real-time alerts. A theoretical rainfall distribution curve was designed for Volcán de Colima based on the rainfall and time distribution of hurricanes Manuel and Patricia. This can be used to run simulations using weather forecasts prior to the actual event, in order to estimate the arrival time of main lahar pulses, usually characterized by block-rich fronts, which are responsible for most of the damage to infrastructure and loss of goods and lives.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Hydrological control of large hurricane-induced lahars: evidence from rainfall-runoff modeling, seismic and video monitoring

Capra

Coviello

Borselli

et al. 2018

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…This choice is made to keep the parameterization as simple as possible, given that rainfall intensity and duration are typically considered more informative for the likelihood of rain-triggered lahars (e.g., Tuñgol and Regalado, 1996;Jones et al, 2015;Mead et al, 2016). Moreover, the conditional links between remobilization efficiency and antecedent rainfall are not yet fully understood; antecedent rainfall is commonly considered to increase the likelihood of lahars or debris flows (e.g., Frattini et al, 2009;Jones et al, 2015), but other physical processes such as "hydro-repellency" have been proposed to decrease the likelihood of lahars when antecedent rainfall is high (e.g., Capra et al, 2010).…”

Section: Multihaz: a Bbn Model For Rain-triggered Laharsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Some studies have improved the classical I-D approach (in which just one line marks the occurrence or not of lahars) to produce probabilistic thresholds by performing logistic regressions on the binary dataset, i.e., event/no event, given an I-D combination (e.g., Frattini et al, 2009), or through Bayesian data analysis (e.g., Berti et al, 2012). Other studies have used several diagnostic triggering variables (e.g., antecedent and total rainfall), in addition to I-D, and have explored their potential use in probabilistic forescasts of lahar occurrence in nearly real time (Jones et al, 2015). For spatial triggering, deterministic physical models of slope stability and/or overland erosion have been employed to delimit the areas that can act as sources of watersediment flows (e.g., Iverson, 2000;Frattini et al, 2004).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The Multihaz assessments are then utilized in conjunction with the hazard footprints computed from the lahar simulator to calculate probabilistic hazard maps and discretized output distributions for flow depth and speed of rain-triggered lahars (see text for more details). Graph of regional rainfall and lahar-observation image modified from https://thecriticalflow.wordpress.com and Jones et al (2015), respectively. in preparation) is briefly introduced.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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A Framework for Probabilistic Multi-Hazard Assessment of Rain-Triggered Lahars Using Bayesian Belief Networks

et al. 2017

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Volcanic water-sediment flows, commonly known as lahars, can often pose a higher threat to population and infrastructure than primary volcanic hazardous processes such as tephra fallout and Pyroclastic Density Currents (PDCs). Lahars are volcaniclastic flows of water, volcanic debris and entrained sediments that can travel long distances from their source, causing severe damage by impact and burial. Lahars are frequently triggered by intense or prolonged rainfall occurring after explosive eruptions, and their occurrence depends on numerous factors including the spatio-temporal rainfall characteristics, the spatial distribution and hydraulic properties of the tephra deposit, and the pre-and post-eruption topography. Modeling (and forecasting) such a complex system requires the quantification of aleatory variability in the lahar triggering and propagation. To fulfill this goal, we develop a novel framework for probabilistic hazard assessment of lahars within a multi-hazard environment, based on coupling a versatile probabilistic model for lahar triggering (a Bayesian Belief Network: Multihaz) with a dynamic physical model for lahar propagation (LaharFlow). Multihaz allows us to estimate the probability of lahars of different volumes occurring by merging varied information about regional rainfall, scientific knowledge on lahar triggering mechanisms and, crucially, probabilistic assessment of available pyroclastic material from tephra fallout and PDCs. LaharFlow propagates the aleatory variability modeled by Multihaz into hazard footprints of lahars. We apply our framework to Somma-Vesuvius (Italy) because: (1) the volcano is strongly lahar-prone based on its previous activity, (2) there are many possible source areas for lahars, and (3) there is high density of population nearby. Our results indicate that the size of the eruption preceding the lahar occurrence and the spatial distribution of tephra accumulation have a paramount role in the lahar initiation and potential impact. For instance, lahars with initiation volume ≥10 5 m 3 along the volcano flanks are almost 60% probable to occur after large-sized eruptions (∼VEI ≥ 5) but 40% after medium-sized eruptions (∼VEI4). Some simulated lahars can propagate for 15 km or reach combined flow depths of 2 m and speeds of 5-10 m/s, even over flat terrain. Probabilistic multi-hazard frameworks like the one presented here can be invaluable for volcanic hazard assessment worldwide.

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Extraordinary sediment delivery and rapid geomorphic response following the 2008–2009 eruption of Chaitén Volcano, Chile

Major

Bertin²,

Pierson

et al. 2016

Water Resources Research

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The 10 day explosive phase of the 2008–2009 eruption of Chaitén volcano, Chile, draped adjacent watersheds with a few cm to >1 m of tephra. Subsequent lava‐dome collapses generated pyroclastic flows that delivered additional sediment. During the waning phase of explosive activity, modest rainfall triggered an extraordinary sediment flush which swiftly aggraded multiple channels by many meters. Ten kilometer from the volcano, Chaitén River channel aggraded 7 m and the river avulsed through a coastal town. That aggradation and delta growth below the abandoned and avulsed channels allow estimates of postdisturbance traction‐load transport rate. On the basis of preeruption bathymetry and remotely sensed measurements of delta‐surface growth, we derived a time series of delta volume. The initial flush from 11 to 14 May 2008 deposited 0.5–1.5 × 106 m3 of sediment at the mouth of Chaitén River. By 26 May, after channel avulsion, a second delta amassed about 2 × 106 m3 of sediment; by late 2011 it amassed about 11 × 106 m3. Accumulated sediment consists of low‐density vesicular pumice and lithic rhyolite sand. Rates of channel aggradation and delta growth, channel width, and an assumed deposit bulk density of 1100–1500 kg m−3 indicate mean traction‐load transport rate just before and shortly after avulsion (∼14–15 May) was very high, possibly as great as several tens of kg s−1 m−1. From October 2008 to December 2011, mean traction‐load transport rate declined from about 7 to 0.4 kg−1 m−1. Despite extraordinary sediment delivery, disturbed channels recovered rapidly (a few years).

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Probabilistic analysis of rain-triggered lahar initiation at Tungurahua volcano

Abstract: Article:Jones, RJ, Manville, V and Andrade, D (2015) Probabilistic analysis of rain-triggered lahar initiation at Tungurahua volcano. Bulletin of Volcanology, 77 (68).

Cited by 31 publications

References 67 publications

Hydrological control of large hurricane-induced lahars: evidence from rainfall-runoff modeling, seismic and video monitoring

Hydrological control of large hurricane-induced lahars: evidence from rainfall-runoff modeling, seismic and video monitoring

A Framework for Probabilistic Multi-Hazard Assessment of Rain-Triggered Lahars Using Bayesian Belief Networks

Extraordinary sediment delivery and rapid geomorphic response following the 2008–2009 eruption of Chaitén Volcano, Chile

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