Probabilistic and Sensitivity Risks Calculation Using the Monte Carlo Simulation Due to Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons Exposure in the Coastal Area of Makassar

Abstract

Purpose: This study aimed to estimate the health hazards associated with exposure to the PAHs pollutants and to simulate the probability and sensitivity for both dermal contact and ingestion exposures by using the Monte Carlo Simulation tool. Theoretical reference: The most dangerous contaminants in the hydrocarbon family are polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs). Due to their mutagenic and carcinogenic characteristics, it is hazardous to both communities and aquatic life when present in the maritime coastal environment. Method: The study's methodology involved the use of observational analytics and an approach for assessing health risks. Monte Carlo simulation was used to simulate the probabilistic risks and the sensitivity of all parameters. For twenty sites around Makassar City's coastal area, all water samples were taken. All samples were cleaned up and sent into a gas chromatography-mass spectrometer (GCMS Shimadzu QP2010, with a detection limit of 0.001 ppb) after being extracted using a soxhlet apparatus for identification. Results and Conclusion: Stations 8 and 4 had the highest and lowest total PAH values, respectively, of 2.50 g/l and 0.12 g/l, respectively. These facts showed that PHAs from Makassar City's coastline water had been contaminated with PAHs. The highest risk (HQ) for a kid ingesting water was at station 14, and the highest risk (HQ) for an adult ingesting water was at station 15. Additionally, the highest hazards (HQ) attributable to dermal contact for both adults and children were 1.58 at station 8 and 1.03 at station 15, respectively. Conclusion: Based on the water parameter, the majority of Makassar City's coastal areas have been contaminated by PAHs. Implications of research: This research become a model design of how to manage the PHAs pollutants in order to minimize the communities health risks and the environment. Originality/value: this research have a methods of calculating and simulation of how to reduce the potential expose of communities, including children and adults, to possible health concerns from PHAs water exposure from Makassar City's coastal waters through ingestion and skin contact.