Probabilistic Assessment of Extreme Heat Stress on Indian Wheat Yields Under Climate Change

Abstract

India is among the leading producers and consumers of wheat. The wheat-growing belt in the country is located along the Indo-Gangetic Plains (IGP; 21°35′-32°28′N and 73°50′-89°49′E) comprising of the states of Punjab, Haryana and Uttar Pradesh. In recent years, wheat cultivation in India is increasingly prone to loss, driven by high temperatures due to climate change and variability (Lavania, 2021; Tribune News Service, 2021). This is a major concern given the observed and projected changes in statistics of the past and future extreme temperatures in India (Basha et al., 2017). Shortfalls in national wheat productivity is expected to have cascading implications for trade and food security (Halarnkar, 2014). The mechanisms through which rising temperatures affect wheat yields in the region are well-established (Farooq et al.

Attribution of 2022 early-spring heatwave in India and Pakistan to climate change: lessons in assessing vulnerability and preparedness in reducing impacts

“…A particularly notable effect is the impact on wheat crops and yields in the wheat-growing regions in the northern plains of India and Southern Pakistan. Anomalously high temperatures during the wheat harvest season in these parts (February-May) are known to adversely affect grain filling and cause early senescence (Lobell et al 2012), thereby reducing yields (Zachariah et al 2021). The country had been aiming for 111.32 million tonnes of wheat for 2022-23; however, the actual production was 106.84 million tonnes, with the shortfall of ∼20% (Arora andBhardwaj 2022, Gupta 2023).…”

Limits to adaptation: Building an integrated research agenda

“…To a large extent biophysical factors can be regarded as exogenous to human activity and not subject to direct modification, even if their impacts may be modified (air conditioning as a modifier of exposure to heat, for instance Barreca et al, 2016; Vicedo‐Cabrera et al, 2021). Perhaps the most well‐researched biophysical limit is extreme heat as a threat to health and life for people and animals (Ebi et al, 2021; Kjellstrom et al, 2016; Mora et al, 2017; Sherwood & Huber, 2010), affecting crop productivity (Cheabu et al, 2019; Deryng et al, 2014; Siebert & Ewert, 2014; Zachariah et al, 2021), as well as more general impacts on economic productivity (Dell et al, 2012). A broader assessment of the “human climate niche” emphasizing temperature generalizes this argument and shows that there may be a safe space defined by prevailing temperature for human development which is now in danger of being breached (Xu et al, 2020).…”

Northward shift of pre-monsoon winds exacerbating heatwaves over India

“…The frequency, intensity, and duration of extreme heat events have increased across many regions of the world (South Asia, China, Europe, the Middle East, Australia, Africa, and North America) [1][2][3] , and this trend is expected to continue into the coming decades 4,5 . Extreme heat events significantly impact human health 6 , natural ecosystems 7 , agriculture 8,9 , economy 10 , and food supply chains 11 on local, regional, and global scales. Moreover, the risk of extreme heat events is greater for developing countries such as India with high population densities and limited resources to mitigate heat-related hazards 12,13 .…”