Probabilistic assessment of seismic-induced slope displacements: an application in Italy

Abstract

Earthquake-induced slope instability is one of the most important hazards related to ground shaking, causing damages to the environment and, often, casualties. Therefore, it is important to assess the seismic performance of slopes, especially in the near fault regions, evaluating the permanent displacements induced by seismic loading. This paper applies a probabilistic approach to evaluate the seismic performance of slopes using an updated database of ground motions recorded during the earthquakes occurred in Italy. The main advantage of this approach is that of accounting for the aleatory variability of both ground motions and prediction of seismic-induced displacements of slopes. The results are presented in terms of hazard curves, showing the annual rate of exceedance of permanent slope displacement evaluated using ground motion data provided by a standard probabilistic hazard analysis and a series of semi-empirical relationships linking the permanent displacements of slopes to one or more ground motion parameters. The procedure has been implemented on a regional scale to produce seismic landslide hazard maps for the Irpinia district, in Southern Italy, characterised by a severe seismic hazard. Seismic landslide hazard maps represent a useful tool for practitioners and government agencies for a regional planning to identify and monitor zones that are potentially susceptible to earthquake-induced slope instability, thus requiring further detailed, site-specific studies.

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Curves and Maps for Italian Slopes

“…It is seen that the adopted models not only predict correctly the conditions at the extrema but also nicely reproduce the non-linear variation of the permanent displacements with k y /PGA. Moreover, Rollo & Rampello (2021) [10] show that the vector approach predicts about halved values of the standard deviations with respect to the scalar one, with a trend characterised by negligible biases for increasing values of k y /PGA and no relevant variation with k y /PGA, hence demonstrating that the regressions adopted in this study are appropriate for the Italian ground motion database.…”

“…Computation have been carried out for different values of the yield seismic coefficient, using an updated version of the Italian strong motion database. In comparison to the work by Rollo & Rampello (2021) [10], an extended range of the yield seismic coefficient is considered here ( ) y 0.04, 0.06, 0.08, 0.1, 0.12, 0.15 k = to include a higher number of slopes scenarios.…”

Evaluation of Seismic Landslide Hazard Based on a New Displacement Semi-empirical Relationship

“…In principle, any combination of ground motion parameters can be adopted. However, as discussed by Rollo & Rampello (2021 [12,13], the parameters PGA and PGV are more suitable for the development of the probabilistic approach requiring a standard seismic probabilistic hazard analysis (PSHA). In the most general case of two strong motion parameters, the new semi-empirical relationship assumes the form:…”

“…The probabilistic approach has been implemented in the commercial numerical software package MATLAB. Details about the Italian seismic database and the implementation technique can be found in [11,12].…”

Assessing Landslide Susceptibility by Coupling Spatial Data Analysis and Logistic Model

“…-Seismic factor. The dynamics of triggering landslides following an earthquake are well documented [33][34][35]. Earthquake-induced landslides are one of the worst natural hazards [36].…”