Probabilistic Change of Wheat Productivity and Water Use in China for Global Mean Temperature Changes of 1°, 2°, and 3°C

Abstract

Impacts of climate change on agriculture are a major concern worldwide, but uncertainties of climate models and emission scenarios may hamper efforts to adapt to climate change. In this paper, a probabilistic approach is used to estimate the uncertainties and simulate impacts of global warming on wheat production and water use in the main wheat cultivation regions of China, with a global mean temperature (GMT) increase scale relative to 1961-90 values. From output of 20 climate scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Data Distribution Centre, median values of projected changes in monthly mean climate variables for representative stations are adapted. These are used to drive the Crop Environment Resource Synthesis (CERES)-Wheat model to simulate wheat production and water use under baseline and global warming scenarios, with and without consideration of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) fertilization effects. Results show that, because of temperature increase, projected wheat-growing periods for GMT changes of 18, 28, and 38C would shorten, with averaged median values of 3.94%, 6.90%, and 9.67%, respectively. There is a high probability of decreasing (increasing) changes in yield and water-use efficiency under higher temperature scenarios without (with) consideration of CO 2 fertilization effects. Elevated CO 2 concentration generally compensates for the negative effects of warming temperatures on production. Moreover, positive effects of elevated CO 2 concentration on grain yield increase with warming temperatures. The findings could be critical for climate-change-driven agricultural production that ensures global food security.

Estimation of soybean agronomic performance in climatic scenarios for Southern Brazil

“…Thus, soybean could only benefit from a CO 2 enriched environment, if the crop is in a region where precipitation meets the water requirements of the crop, or if there is irrigation. Liu & Tao (2013) also confirmed such CO 2 influence on C3 plants in conditions of water deficit absence as presented in this study, in which there is no indicative of water deficit even in irrigation requirement absence (Tables 4 and 5). …”

Desempenho agronômico do milho em diferentes cenários climáticos no Centro-Oeste do Brasil

“…Considerando os atuais níveis de CO 2 na atmosfera, as plantas se encontram saturadas, ou seja, eventuais elevações na concentração de CO 2 , não devem favorecer as plantas com metabolismo C4, como é o caso do milho. Liu & Tao (2013) atestam como uma planta C3 responde de forma mais expressiva à variação de CO 2 . Os pesquisadores encontraram que há maior probabilidade de diminuição (aumento) nas mudanças na produtividade e eficiência do uso de água do trigo cultivado na China, sobre cenários com temperaturas maiores sem (com) consideração dos efeitos de fertilização do CO 2 .…”

Impact of Climate Change on the Growth of Typical Crops in Karst Areas: A Case Study of Guizhou Province

“…In the past 30 years, the north boundary of the double cropping rice growing area in southern China has been pushed northward for nearly 300 km [49]. Growth period is advanced and shortened [50]. e decomposition of soil organic matter is accelerated, and the soil fertility is reduced [51,52].…”