Probabilistic eruption forecasting and the call for an evacuation

Abstract

One of the most critical practical actions to reduce volcanic risk is the evacuation of people from threatened areas during volcanic unrest. Despite its importance, this decision is usually arrived at subjectively by a few individuals, with little quantitative decision support. Here, we propose a possible strategy to integrate a probabilistic scheme for eruption forecasting and cost‐benefit analysis, with an application to the call for an evacuation of one of the highest risk volcanoes: Vesuvius. This approach has the following merits. First, it incorporates a decision‐analysis framework, expressed in terms of event probability, accounting for all modes of available hazard knowledge. Secondly, it is a scientific tool, based on quantitative and transparent rules that can be tested. Finally, since the quantitative rules are defined during a period of quiescence, it allows prior scrutiny of any scientific input into the model, so minimizing the external stress on scientists during an actual emergency phase. Whilst we specifically report the case of Vesuvius during the MESIMEX exercise, the approach can be generalized to other types of natural catastrophe.

Decision-Making: Preventing Miscommunication and Creating Shared Meaning Between Stakeholders

“…In volcanology, it has become increasingly popular to use probability statements in communications (Doyle et al 2014a), which involve knowledge of both the dynamical phenomena and the uncertainties involved (Sparks 2003). Further, the use of probabilistic cost benefit analysis and Bayesian Event Trees has been driven by a desire to make objective and traceable decisions via quantitative volcanic risk metrics (Aspinall and Cooke 1998;Marzocchi and Woo 2007;Woo 2008;Lindsay et al 2009). …”

Evacuation planning in the Auckland Volcanic Field, New Zealand: a spatio-temporal approach for emergency management and transportation network decisions

“…Baker 1991, Ketteridge et al 1996, Wolshon et al 2001, Marrero et al 2010 and others have focussed on emergency response activities (e.g. Cova 1999, Cutter 2003, Marzocchi and Woo 2007, Moriarty et al 2007, Shaluf 2008. The core components to this evacuation planning can be summarised as: 1) conditions under which an evacuation may be necessary; 2) 'at risk' people/communities who may require evacuation; 3) evacuation routes and destinations; and 4) the resources and time required to evacuate 'at risk' people/communities (MCDEM, 2008).…”

“…These hazards range from highly destructive phenomena such as pyroclastic density currents, debris avalanches, lava flows and lahars that typically destroy everything in their path, to less destructive yet highly disruptive phenomena such as ash fall, volcanic tremor and gas release. As many volcanoes and volcanic regions around the world are already heavily populated, the most effective means of risk reduction will be to identify the most hazardous areas and evacuate the population from the danger zone prior to an eruption (Marzocchi and Woo 2007, Sandri et al 2012.…”

Using Statistics to Quantify and Communicate Uncertainty During Volcanic Crises

“…Following the successful development of probabilistic tools, came the challenge of communicating their results. Research and operational strategies started to incorporate the enhancement of the communication of these probabilistic forecasts to decision makers and the public (Marzocchi and Woo 2007;Sobradelo et al 2014). At the same time, extensive work has been done in the psychological and sociological aspects on the perception and interpretation of uncertainty, for both volcanology and across other hazards.…”