Probabilistic Evaluation of Drought in CMIP6 Simulations

Papalexiou, S.; Rajulapati, Chandra Rupa; Andreadis, Konstantinos M.; Foufoula‐Georgiou, Efi; Clark, Martyn P.; Trenberth, Kevin E.

doi:10.1029/2021ef002150

Cited by 19 publications

(19 citation statements)

References 88 publications

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“…Given the main importance of precipitation on the severity of different drought types, this needs to be taken into account when assessing the goodness of future drought projections. Furthermore, the CMIP6 models exhibit significant bias in low precipitation values [ 99 ], which are the most relevant for assessing meteorological droughts.…”

Section: Global Drought Projectionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Global drought trends and future projections

Vicente‐Serrano

Peña‐Angulo

Beguerı́a

et al. 2022

Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A.

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Drought is one of the most difficult natural hazards to quantify and is divided into categories (meteorological, agricultural, ecological and hydrological), which makes assessing recent changes and future scenarios extremely difficult. This opinion piece includes a review of the recent scientific literature on the topic and analyses trends in meteorological droughts by using long-term precipitation records and different drought metrics to evaluate the role of global warming processes in trends of agricultural, hydrological and ecological drought severity over the last four decades, during which a sharp increase in atmospheric evaporative demand (AED) has been recorded. Meteorological droughts do not show any substantial changes at the global scale in at least the last 120 years, but an increase in the severity of agricultural and ecological droughts seems to emerge as a consequence of the increase in the severity of AED. Lastly, this study evaluates drought projections from earth system models and focuses on the most important aspects that need to be considered when evaluating drought processes in a changing climate, such as the use of different metrics and the uncertainty of modelling approaches. This article is part of the Royal Society Science+ meeting issue ‘Drought risk in the Anthropocene’.

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Section: Global Drought Projectionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Global drought trends and future projections

Vicente‐Serrano

Peña‐Angulo

Beguerı́a

et al. 2022

Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A.

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“…, with 0 indicating perfect match while the larger the E H distance (tending to 1), the more the mismatch (see Papalexiou et al, 2021 for a drought analysis using H distance).…”

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confidence: 99%

Biases Beyond the Mean in CMIP6 Extreme Precipitation: A Global Investigation

et al. 2021

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Extreme environmental phenomena are part of natural variability. Yet, anthropogenic activities are expected to intensify extreme events, affecting the natural and built environment (e.g., AghaKouchak et al., 2020;Moustakis et al., 2021;Raymond et al., 2020). Extreme events have severe effects on human health, ecology, biodiversity, and economy. For example, globally, from 1980 to 2009, floods caused more than 500,000 deaths and adversely affected more than 2.8 billion people (Doocy et al., 2013). Therefore, analyzing and predicting the behavior of extreme events, especially under climate change, is of great importance. Meanwhile, a clear definition of extreme events does not exist and we typically relate extremes with low exceedance probabilities . However, in the literature, popular methods focus on analyzing

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“…At present, the CMIP has evolved to the sixth phase (CMIP6), in which some improvements have been made in physics processes and model resolutions (Eyring et al, 2016). Some recent studies have started to use the CMIP6 simulations for the evaluation and projection of drought (e.g., Cook et al, 2020;Papalexiou et al, 2021;Wang et al, 2021;Yang et al, 2021). Wang et al (2021) revealed that the CMIP6 has high simulation accuracy at midlatitudes for drought analysis.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Wang et al (2021) revealed that the CMIP6 has high simulation accuracy at midlatitudes for drought analysis. However, Papalexiou et al (2021) showed that no single model can perform better over a large region. Therefore, the challenge of coarse resolutions has discouraged some researchers from using GCMs.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Performance of CMIP6 HighResMIP Simulations on West African Drought

et al. 2022

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This study evaluated the performance of seven CMIP6 HighResMIP models in the simulations of drought over two sub-regions of West Africa: the Guinea coast and the Sahel during the historical period of 1985–2014, in terms of the potential evapotranspiration index (PET), climatic water availability (CWA), and standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) at three time scales (i.e., 1, 3, and 12 months). The Climate Research Unit (CRU) TS v4.03 datasets were used as the observation reference. The observation shows that the PET and CWA during August (i.e., the rainfall annual peak) were less than 30 and 200 mm/month over the Guinea coast, respectively. The corresponding values over the Sahel were 100 and -50 mm/month, respectively. A significant decreasing trend was observed in drought over the Guinea coast (except Nigeria) and the Sahel. The frequencies of extreme and severe droughts were observed over Nigeria, Liberia, and Sierra Leone during the historical period. The seven HighResMIP models show different behaviors in simulating all of the abovementioned observation features. Among all the simulations, the ENSEMBLE, ECMWF, and IPSL generally perform better in almost all the statistical indices used, although there are still biases that need to be resolved in the models.

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Probabilistic Evaluation of Drought in CMIP6 Simulations

Cited by 19 publications

References 88 publications

Global drought trends and future projections

Global drought trends and future projections

Biases Beyond the Mean in CMIP6 Extreme Precipitation: A Global Investigation

Performance of CMIP6 HighResMIP Simulations on West African Drought

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