Probabilistic Model for Listeria monocytogenes Growth during Distribution, Retail Storage, and Domestic Storage of Pasteurized Milk

Abstract

A survey on the time-temperature conditions of pasteurized milk in Greece during transportation to retail, retail storage, and domestic storage and handling was performed. The data derived from the survey were described with appropriate probability distributions and introduced into a growth model of Listeria monocytogenes in pasteurized milk which was appropriately modified for taking into account strain variability. Based on the above components, a probabilistic model was applied to evaluate the growth of L. monocytogenes during the chill chain of pasteurized milk using a Monte Carlo simulation. The model predicted that, in 44.8% of the milk cartons released in the market, the pathogen will grow until the time of consumption. For these products the estimated mean total growth of L. monocytogenes during transportation, retail storage, and domestic storage was 0.93 log CFU, with 95th and 99th percentiles of 2.68 and 4.01 log CFU, respectively. Although based on EU regulation 2073/2005 pasteurized milk produced in Greece belongs to the category of products that do not allow the growth of L. monocytogenes due to a shelf life (defined by law) of 5 days, the above results show that this shelf life limit cannot prevent L. monocytogenes from growing under the current chill chain conditions. The predicted percentage of milk cartons-initially contaminated with 1 cell/1-liter carton-in which the pathogen exceeds the safety criterion of 100 cells/ml at the time of consumption was 0.14%. The probabilistic model was used for an importance analysis of the chill chain factors, using rank order correlation, while selected intervention and shelf life increase scenarios were evaluated. The results showed that simple interventions, such as excluding the door shelf from the domestic storage of pasteurized milk, can effectively reduce the growth of the pathogen. The door shelf was found to be the warmest position in domestic refrigerators, and it was most frequently used by the consumers for domestic storage of pasteurized milk. Furthermore, the model predicted that a combination of this intervention with a decrease of the mean temperature of domestic refrigerators by 2°C may allow an extension of pasteurized milk shelf life from 5 to 7 days without affecting the current consumer exposure to L. monocytogenes.

Expanded Fermi Solution for Estimating the Survival of Ingested Pathogenic and Probiotic Microbial Cells and Spores

“…Notice that except under strictly controlled laboratory conditions, the terms "washed," "refrigerated," "cooked," and "baked" are not clearly defined. But even in controlled experiments, the survival of pathogens and other microorganisms can vary by as much as an order of magnitude and even more (2,9,10,19,24). Thus, determining by how much food storage and preparation reduce the number of cells or spores of interest would require a substantial amount of data and might still yield inconclusive results.…”

Stochasticity in Colonial Growth Dynamics of Individual Bacterial Cells

“…The importance of single-cell variability was raised after the recent developments in quantitative microbial risk assessment (9). Deterministic models that provide point estimates are generally not sufficient to satisfactorily manage microbial safety risks (10)(11)(12). Indeed, if, for instance, the consequences of unacceptable levels of pathogenic microorganisms in a food are grave, knowledge of only the mean population growth is unlikely to be a sufficient basis for management decisions on the safety risk.…”

Is your lunch salad safe to eat? Occurrence of bacterial pathogens and potential for pathogen growth in pre-packed ready-to-eat mixed-ingredient salads

“…Regardless of the recommended storage temperature, many studies report temperature abuse in both retail [46] and domestic refrigerators [47,48]. In the UK study, 93.2% of the salad samples for which temperature was recorded were displayed at or below 8°C, while 5.9% were stored at 9–24°C [2].…”