Probabilistic Modeling of Floodwater Level for Dam Reservoirs

Carvajal, Claudio; Peyras, Laurent; Arnaud, Patrick; Boissier, Daniel; Royet, Paul

doi:10.1061/(asce)1084-0699(2009)14:3(223)

Cited by 29 publications

(32 citation statements)

References 7 publications

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“…For instance, the initial reservoir level could have been probabilistically assessed from observed reservoir levels' time series [30,31] or from regular operation simulation [32]. The spillway reliability can be assessed through different methodologies as a fault tree analysis combined with an expert judgment [31,32].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Risk-Based Model for Real-Time Flood Control Operation of a Cascade Reservoir System under Emergency Conditions

Chen

Zhong

Wang

et al. 2018

Water

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Real-time flood control operations of a cascade reservoir system under emergency conditions can reduce the social and economic loss caused by natural disasters. This paper proposes a risk-based model for real-time flood control operation of reservoirs under emergency conditions and uncertainties. The proposed model consists of three modules: emergency scenarios establishing, Monte Carlo simulations, and risk analysis. The emergency scenarios considered are earthquakes, extreme floods and failure of the spillways of a reservoir. The uncertainty factor considered is the forecast error of reservoir inflows, arising from model structural uncertainty and parameter estimating. The Monte Carlo simulations conduct the real-time flood control operation of reservoirs considering the proposed emergency events and uncertainties. The module of risk analysis performs the assessment of the operation schedules and calculates the risk of dam overtopping, based on the results from Monte Carlo simulations. The proposed model is applied to a cascade reservoir system in the upper reaches of Daduhe river basin in China. The results show that the maximum initial water level of the Shuangjiangkou reservoir is 2447 m a.s.l. (meters above sea level) using the release capacity model and is 2444.5 m a.s.l. using the command model under the scenario of upstream dam break. The integrated risk of the reservoir increases with the initial water level and the uncertainty degree of the reservoir inflows. The decision-makers can choose the operation models according to the actual initial water level of the reservoir under different emergency scenarios.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Risk-Based Model for Real-Time Flood Control Operation of a Cascade Reservoir System under Emergency Conditions

Chen

Zhong

Wang

et al. 2018

Water

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“…However, with the aim of simplifying the case studies, the initial level was considered equal to the maximum level (the top of conservation pool, TCP) that could be reached during the ordinary operating conditions (prior to a flood event) for all events. Such consideration is a practice commonly implemented in dam design (Carvajal et al, 2009). Finally, for each case study, ensembles of 1000 flash flood events were generated, with a hyetograph duration varying from one half of the time of concentration (tc) to three times tc for the respective basins.…”

Section: Case Studiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Risk-based methodology for parameter calibration of a reservoir flood control model

Bianucci

Sordo‐Ward

Pérez

et al. 2013

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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Flash floods are of major relevance in natural disaster management in the Mediterranean region. In many cases, the damaging effects of flash floods can be mitigated by adequate management of flood control reservoirs. This requires the development of suitable models for optimal operation of reservoirs. A probabilistic methodology for calibrating the parameters of a reservoir flood control model (RFCM) that takes into account the stochastic variability of flood events is presented. This study addresses the crucial problem of operating reservoirs during flood events, considering downstream river damages and dam failure risk as conflicting operation criteria. These two criteria are aggregated into a single objective of total expected damages from both the maximum released flows and stored volumes (overall risk index). For each selected parameter set the RFCM is run under a wide range of hydrologic loads (determined through Monte Carlo simulation). The optimal parameter set is obtained through the overall risk index (balanced solution) and then compared with other solutions of the Pareto front. The proposed methodology is implemented at three different reservoirs in the southeast of Spain. The results obtained show that the balanced solution offers a good compromise between the two main objectives of reservoir flood control management

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“…In this comparison project, 19 the SHYREG method was found to be the most stable (ability to yield similar estimates when different data 20 are used for calibration) and one of the most reliable methods tested (Arnaud et al, 2016). Moreover, this 21 method provides realistic flood scenarios directly used for dam design (Carvajal et al, 2009) and takes into 22 account the non-stationarity of phenomena much better (Cantet et al, 2011). These advantages make it a 23 very valuable method, but knowledge of its uncertainties is required.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Uncertainties of flood frequency estimation approaches based on continuous simulation using data resampling

Arnaud

Cantet

Odry

2017

Journal of Hydrology

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Probabilistic Modeling of Floodwater Level for Dam Reservoirs

Cited by 29 publications

References 7 publications

A Risk-Based Model for Real-Time Flood Control Operation of a Cascade Reservoir System under Emergency Conditions

A Risk-Based Model for Real-Time Flood Control Operation of a Cascade Reservoir System under Emergency Conditions

Risk-based methodology for parameter calibration of a reservoir flood control model

Uncertainties of flood frequency estimation approaches based on continuous simulation using data resampling

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