Probabilistic modeling of functioning of district-distributed heating systems for the reliability analysis

Abstract

The study is devoted to modeling a random process of functioning of district-distributed heating systems, aimed at determining the probabilities of states corresponding to failures of their components. The probabilities of emergency states, along with the physical assessment of the consequences of failures, are used to reliability analysis and synthesis for studied systems. The basic stochastic model of the system functioning corresponds to a markov random stationary process under the conditions of the simplest events flow. Modifications of random process models are proposed, accounting the non-ordinarity events (simultaneous failures of components) and the dependence between some events (mainly, failures), if the corresponding technological possibility is established. A number of computational experiments is provided to assess the degree of influence of considered factors on the results of probabilistic modeling of studied systems.