Probabilistic Modelling for Incorporating Uncertainty in Least Cost Path Results: a Postdictive Roman Road Case Study

Lewis, Joseph

doi:10.1007/s10816-021-09522-w

Cited by 32 publications

(19 citation statements)

References 45 publications

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“…In order to develop quantitative research on historical itineraries in the future, we suggest extending the historical transportation modeling methodology, which is necessary for describing a ruler's full daily program. One interesting approach presented by Lewis (Lewis 2021) includes stochastic elements for estimating the most probable travel path between two places. A probabilistic solution would also be relevant for the incorporation of various uncertainties that are present in almost every historical dataset, or to mitigate the effect of missing data.…”

Section: Discussion and Summarymentioning

confidence: 99%

Metrics for the identification of primary centers of government from historical itineraries: Přemysl Otakar II: A case study

Kalhous¹,

Stachoň²

2022

Preprint

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The royal charters and chronicles present a unique historical source for researching power distribution and administration of the medieval kingdom. This paper presents an attempt to progress in the analytical approaches presented by German historians from the 1980s and 1990s to study the governance of the medieval kingdom. Inspired by the use of newly acquainted digital methods in humanities, we compare the analytical metrics implemented on the Přemysl Otakar II (1251-1278) activity itinerary dataset to study the identification of primary centers of his government. The data for the study were collected based on the historical research of available sources and transformed and cleaned into a data table of king's activities and a list of geocoded localities. To study the king's movement in spacetime, we also needed to reconstruct the travel routes and the corresponding travel time estimation. In the next step, we selected and implemented twelve metrics ranging from fundamental statistical analysis, and geostatistics, to network analysis to evaluate the dataset and identify the primary centers of the reign of the king. Further, we provided the comparison of all used metrics in the sense of visual analysis, methodological point of view, and from the perspective of their historical interpretation. In addition to providing a methodological extension to the research of historical itineraries, the outcomes of the analyses brought a new contribution to the historical research of the administration of the medieval kingdom.

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Section: Discussion and Summarymentioning

confidence: 99%

Metrics for the identification of primary centers of government from historical itineraries: Přemysl Otakar II: A case study

Kalhous¹,

Stachoň²

2022

Preprint

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“…As such, additional methods of evaluating suitability of movement need to be developed for the modelling of routes in non-mountainous regions. One method is to incorporate and propagate the effect of DEM vertical error using Monte Carlo simulation when modelling LCPs, as was recently demonstrated by Lewis (2021) using the case study of a Roman Road. The authors hope to undertake a similar study on the Joseon Dynasty Main Roads in the near future.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The least cost path (LCP) principle has been widely applied by archaeologists and geographers when using GIS-based modelling to reconstruct probable routes of movement within past landscapes. However, the restrictive nature of LCP modelling, which tends to produce only a single optimal route or consider only a single parameter, has been noted (Gowen & de Smet 2020;McLean & Rubio-Campillo 2022), and new ways of modelling ancient movement that look beyond LCPs to explore multiple optimal routes or the range of probable routes between points have come to be proposed, such as those utilizing circuit theory (Howey 2011), flow accumulation (Frachetti et al 2017), focal mobility networks (Parcero-Oubiña et al 2019), or Monte Carlo simulation (Lewis 2021). This study also aims to address the restrictive nature of LCP modelling, albeit from a different perspective.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

‘Benefit Maximizing Routes’: Development and Evaluation Using the Historical Roads of Korea’s Joseon Dynasty (1392–1910)

Shim

Park

2022

Journal of Computer Applications in Archaeology

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Least cost paths (LCPs) have been widely used by archaeologists and geographers to reconstruct probable routes of movement within past landscapes using GIS-based modelling. By definition, LCP modelling is based on the premise that 'least cost' features as the primary factor in the decision-making of movement. It can be argued, however, that movement within the landscape was structured not only by the need to minimize costs but also by the desire to maximize benefits. This study introduces a new way of estimating terrain costs that can factor in this tendency towards 'benefit maximization' when modelling routes. This alternative methodology features a distinctive way of perceiving the landscape, which differs from the grid-based division of the landscape generally used in LCP modelling. The landscape is seen to be made up of ten different 'hillslope position units' (which are generic landscape units widely used in landscape evolution studies) and 'movement suitability' values are estimated for each of the hillslope position units. These values are then used to produce a 'hillslope position unit movement suitability' (HPMS) cost surface. The evaluation of the HPMS cost surface is undertaken by comparing HPMS-based routes and slope gradient-based LCPs against the historical roads of Korea's Joseon Dynasty . It is observed that HPMS-based routes demonstrate a greater degree of correspondence with historically confirmed routes, compared to slope gradient-based LCPs. The similarity between HPMS-based routes and historically confirmed routes is found to be greater in mountainous regions vis-à-vis non-mountainous regions. It is proposed that, by taking into account human desire to utilize beneficial landscapes, HPMS-based cost surfaces may result in modelled routes that are closer to actual past experiences.

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“…In addition to physical mapping of trackways in the field, potential trackways can be computed with geographic information systems (GIS). The least cost path (LCP) algorithm is a commonly used method (Herzog, 2014; Lewis, 2021; Vletter, 2019; Vletter & van Lanen, 2018). Tracks computed with the LCP algorithm in a digital model predict the most efficient connections between start points and endpoints.…”

Section: The Research Aimmentioning

confidence: 99%

Identification of historical trackways in forests using contextual geospatial analyses

Slámová

Pažinová

Belčáková

et al. 2022

Archaeological Prospection

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Probabilistic Modelling for Incorporating Uncertainty in Least Cost Path Results: a Postdictive Roman Road Case Study

Cited by 32 publications

References 45 publications

Metrics for the identification of primary centers of government from historical itineraries: Přemysl Otakar II: A case study

Metrics for the identification of primary centers of government from historical itineraries: Přemysl Otakar II: A case study

‘Benefit Maximizing Routes’: Development and Evaluation Using the Historical Roads of Korea’s Joseon Dynasty (1392–1910)

Identification of historical trackways in forests using contextual geospatial analyses

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