Probabilistic Modelling using Monte Carlo Simulation for Incorporating Uncertainty in Least Cost Path Results: a Postdictive Roman Road Case Study

Abstract

The movement of past peoples in the landscape has been studied extensively through the use of Least Cost Path (LCP) analysis. Although methodological issues of applying LCP analysis in Archaeology have frequently been discussed, the effect of vertical error in the DEM on LCP results has not been assessed. This research proposes the use of Monte Carlo simulation as a method for incorporating and propagating the effects of vertical error on LCP results. Random error fields representing the vertical error of the DEM are calculated and incorporated into the documented and reproducible LCP modelling process using the R package leastcostpath. The development of probabilistic Least Cost Paths allows for the identification of areas that are probabilistically more likely, and likewise less likely, to have an LCP crossing a cell. Furthermore, by incorporating uncertainty into the LCP modelling process, greater confidence can be given to LCP results. These methods are applied to a Roman road case study that aims to illustrate how interpretations drawn from a single realisation of an LCP should be viewed with caution. Instead, results should be based on multiple realisations of the LCP after incorporating vertical error and interpretations should be expressed probabilistically through the use of probabilistic LCPs.

En az maliyetli yol analizine dayalı arkeolojik tahmin haritalarının kullanılabilirliğinin incelenmesi: Sivas merkez ilçe örneği

“…Arkeolojik alan tahmin haritalarının, son yıllarda dikkat çeken yöntemlerinden birisi, mekânsal analiz yöntemi olarak LCPA analizleridir (Egeland ve ark., 2010;Herzog & Posluschny, 2011;Kondo & Seino, 2011;Herzog, 2014a;Cet ve ark., 2015;Byrd ve ark., 2015;Rogers ve ark., 2015;Lewis, 2018;Hamer ve ark., 2019;Milheira ve ark., 2019). Temelleri Zipf (1949) tarafından atılan en az maliyet analizi, insanların pek çok davranışının en az maliyetle gerçekleştirilmek üzere şekillendiğini varsayar.…”