Probabilistic Models of Maximum Precipitation for Designing Sewerage

Abstract

Pluviographic measurement results from the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMGW) Wrocław–Strachowice meteorological station from the years 1960–2009 constitute the basis for this paper. While conducting the statistical analysis of precipitation occurrence frequency, the criterion of interval precipitation amounts was assumed in order to isolate the intensive rainfalls from the pluviograms, which made it possible to select a number of the most intensive rainfalls in each year. A total of 514 synthetic rainfall instances were isolated, which were then were arranged according to non-increasing amounts in 16 duration intervals. This was the basis to propose the unification of the development methodology of probabilistic models for maximum precipitation amounts, reliable in the designing and verification of drain flow capacity, especially for low probability of precipitation occurrence. Maximum precipitation models for Wrocław were developed (average annual precipitation H = 590 mm).

Maximum daily rainfall analysis at selected meteorological stations in the upper Lusatian Neisse River basin

“…These include measured data preparation and processing -the selection of data series that become random variables, selection of proper probability distributions, the estimation of selected distribution parameters (e.g. shape α, scale λ and location μ), the transformation of a particular distribution quantile, and the evaluation of the quality of correlation between modelled and measured rainfall data (Bartels et al 2005;Kotowski, Kaźmierczak 2013;Kaźmierczak, Wdowikowski 2016). Methods for selecting measured data appropriate for the probabilistic determination of maximum rainfall values are described widely in the global literature -these are, namely, the annual maximum precipitation (AMP or MAP) and peak-over-threshold (POT) methods.…”

“…This paper represents an attempt to undertake such an analysis for the Polish part of the upper Lusatian Neisse River basin. The main scope of this study was to assess and present the usefulness of top probability distributions to describe maximum rainfall data in a long-term period (in this case 50 years), based on the engineering approach presented by Kotowski, Kaźmierczak and Wdowikowski in their recent papers (Kotowski et al 2010;Kotowski, Kaźmierczak 2013;, 2015Wdowikowski, Kaźmierczak 2015;Kaźmierczak, Wdowikowski 2016). This paper's analysis is based on the rainfall measurement data recorded at eight Polish meteorological IMWM-NRI stations located in the upper Lusatian Neisse River basin.…”

Evaluating the Catastrophic Rainfall of 14 July 2016 in the Catchment Basin of the Urbanized Strzyza Stream in Gdańsk, Poland

“…The maximal precipitation depth P (mm) with the probability of exceedance p (-) depending on the duration time t (min) is as follows [19]: Local rain models are based on local precipitation data. It is worth mentioning the results obtained for Kraków [20][21] and Wrocław [22][23]. For the Gdańsk region Weinerowska-Bords established the local rain formula based on 122 rain episodes collected by the GUT meteorological station in the period 1991-2010 [3].…”

Standards for the dimensioning and assessment of reliable operations of area drainage systems under conditions of climate change

“…The data came from IMGW-PIB Wrocław-Strachowice meteorological station. To conduct the tests, a local probabilistic model of maximum precipitation was used [26,27] (2) on the basis of which, threshold values of the ranges of the precipitation levels were calculated for the frequency of incidence: from once a year to once every 10 years. The maximum measured ranges of precipitation levels were then grouped into 4 classes of frequency of incidence with precipitation elevation, i.e.…”