Probabilistic Resilience Analysis of the Icelandic Power System under Extreme Weather

Karangelos, Efthymios; Perkin, Samuel; Wehenkel, Louis

doi:10.3390/app10155089

Cited by 9 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 14 publications

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“…The results are illustrated in Figure 7. According to the results, among the surveyed studies, energy systems (e.g., [37][38][39][40][41][42][43][44][45][46][47][48][49][50][51][52][53][54][55]), transportation networks (e.g., [56][57][58][59][60][61][62][63][64][65][66][67][68][69]), and water supply networks (e.g., [70][71][72][73][74][75][76][77][78]) have the highest frequency as case studies, among other fields. Meanwhile, health care infrastructures [79,80], industrial processes [81][82][83], supply chain [84], mining sector…”

Section: In What Type Of Technological Ciss Has the Concept Of Resilience Been Used?mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Lu [105] defined resilience as the "system's ability to recover rapidly from the worst performance under disruption to its original state". According to Karangelos et al [46], resilience of a power system can be defined as the "system's ability to withstand a much wider range of atypical, yet not entirely unlikely, operating conditions characterized by the simultaneous failure of several system components, or at least to deteriorate moderately and promptly recover". Furthermore, in Zhang et al [54], a resilient power system is defined as a "system that could anticipate possible disruptions, adopt effective actions to reduce the losses of system components and load before and during disruption, and recover power supply quickly".…”

Section: How Is the Term "Resilience" Defined In The Discipline Of Technological Ciss?mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…For example, for those CISs (e.g., electric power supply systems) that have been located in areas with a harsh environment, it is very hard to repair the disrupted components in severe storms. Therefore, they should be capable of absorbing various component failures [46]. Absorptive capacity includes a set of proactive actions (e.g., by safer design) that should be considered in the CIS's preparedness phase [136][137][138][139].…”

Section: What Types Of Terms Define/determine the Resilience Of Technological Ciss?mentioning

confidence: 99%

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The Resilience of Critical Infrastructure Systems: A Systematic Literature Review

et al. 2021

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Risk management is a fundamental approach to improving critical infrastructure systems’ safety against disruptive events. This approach focuses on designing robust critical infrastructure systems (CISs) that could resist disruptive events by minimizing the possible events’ probability and consequences using preventive and protective programs. However, recent disasters like COVID-19 have shown that most CISs cannot stand against all potential disruptions. Recently there is a transition from robust design to resilience design of CISs, increasing the focus on preparedness, response, and recovery. Resilient CISs withstand most of the internal and external shocks, and if they fail, they can bounce back to the operational phase as soon as possible using minimum resources. Moreover, in resilient CISs, early warning enables managers to get timely information about the proximity and development of distributions. An understanding of the concept of resilience, its influential factors, and available evaluation and analyzing tools are required to have effective resilience management. Moreover, it is important to highlight the current gaps. Technological resilience is a new concept associated with some ambiguity around its definition, its terms, and its applications. Hence, using the concept of resilience without understanding these variations may lead to ineffective pre- and post-disruption planning. A well-established systematic literature review can provide a deep understanding regarding the concept of resilience, its limitation, and applications. The aim of this paper is to conduct a systematic literature review to study the current research around technological CISs’ resilience. In the review, 192 primary studies published between 2003 and 2020 are reviewed. Based on the results, the concept of resilience has gradually found its place among researchers since 2003, and the number of related studies has grown significantly. It emerges from the review that a CIS can be considered as resilient if it has (i) the ability to imagine what to expect, (ii) the ability to protect and resist a disruption, (iii) the ability to absorb the adverse effects of disruption, (iv) the ability to adapt to new conditions and changes caused by disruption, and (v) the ability to recover the CIS’s normal performance level after a disruption. It was shown that robustness is the most frequent resilience contributing factor among the reviewed primary studies. Resilience analysis approaches can be classified into four main groups: empirical, simulation, index-based, and qualitative approaches. Simulation approaches, as dominant models, mostly study real case studies, while empirical methods, specifically those that are deterministic, are built based on many assumptions that are difficult to justify in many cases.

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Section: In What Type Of Technological Ciss Has the Concept Of Resilience Been Used?mentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: How Is the Term "Resilience" Defined In The Discipline Of Technological Ciss?mentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: What Types Of Terms Define/determine the Resilience Of Technological Ciss?mentioning

confidence: 99%

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The Resilience of Critical Infrastructure Systems: A Systematic Literature Review

et al. 2021

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“…In terms of frequently concerning typhoon weather, Nguyen H. T. et al [35] utilized a stochastic optimization model based on resilience improvement, and Zhou J. et al [36] proposed a coordinated optimization method based on the regional integrated energy system to realize resilience improvement. The mathematical programming model is an important optimization method to study the resilience of power grid; Hou H. et al [37] used machine learning methods to analyze the impact of wind disasters on transmission lines, and Karangelos E. et al [38] combined the failure rate of grid units sensitive to weather with an optimization model based on vulnerability identification through the Monte Carlo method. Under extreme weather, the power grid capabilities related to resilience include physical hardiness and operational capability, and each capability enhancement strategy improves the overall power grid system resilience [39].…”

Section: Related Workmentioning

confidence: 99%

Topological Modeling Research on the Functional Vulnerability of Power Grid under Extreme Weather

Xie

et al. 2021

Energies

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The large-scale interconnection of the power grid has brought great benefits to social development, but simultaneously, the frequency of large-scale fault accidents caused by extreme weather is also rocketing. The power grid is regarded as a representative complex network in this paper to analyze its functional vulnerability. First, the actual power grid topology is modeled on the basis of the complex network theory, which is transformed into a directed-weighted topology model after introducing the node voltage together with line reactance. Then, the algorithm of weighted reactance betweenness is proposed by analyzing the characteristic parameters of the power grid topology model. The product of unit reliability and topology model’s characteristic parameters under extreme weather is used as the index to measure the functional vulnerability of the power grid, which considers the extreme weather of freezing and gale and quantifies the functional vulnerability of lines under wind load, ice load, and their synergistic effects. Finally, a simulation using the IEEE-30 node system is implemented. The result shows that the proposed method can effectively measure the short-term vulnerability of power grid units under extreme weather. Meanwhile, the example analysis verifies the different effects of normal and extreme weather on the power grid and identifies the nodes and lines with high vulnerability under extreme weather, which provides theoretical support for preventing and reducing the impact of extreme weather on the power grid.

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“…The key features, theoretical framework, and strategies for improving the resilience of power grids against natural disasters in [20]- [23]. Relevant research achievements have also been applied in Iceland and Brazil, based on a framework combining weather-dependent component failure probabilities in [24] and [25]. However, the dynamic interaction effect between meteorological and power systems is always simplified with the probability model of meteorological weather, neglecting the reaction of the power system.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Dynamic Simulation of Power Systems Considering Transmission Lines Icing and Insulators Flashover in Extreme Weather

et al. 2022

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Global climate deterioration caused by excessive carbon emissions poses a severe threat to the stable operation of power systems. In extreme snow and ice weather, complex faults, such as ice-covered line breakage and insulator flashover, may be triggered. Hybrid simulations to reveal the influence mechanism and dynamic interaction process between extreme weather and power systems have become a research focus. Relationship models between meteorological conditions and grid failure were constructed in ice accretion and insulator flashover scenarios. Based on the above two models, a multi-variable and multi-time scale hybrid simulation of the meteorological process and power system, considering line icing and insulator flashover, was realized. An example was provided to verify the feasibility of the proposed simulation scheme.INDEX TERMS Extreme snow and ice weather, line icing, insulator flashover, hybrid simulation.

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Probabilistic Resilience Analysis of the Icelandic Power System under Extreme Weather

Cited by 9 publications

References 14 publications

The Resilience of Critical Infrastructure Systems: A Systematic Literature Review

The Resilience of Critical Infrastructure Systems: A Systematic Literature Review

Topological Modeling Research on the Functional Vulnerability of Power Grid under Extreme Weather

Dynamic Simulation of Power Systems Considering Transmission Lines Icing and Insulators Flashover in Extreme Weather

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