Probabilistic risk analysis in subsurface hydrology

Tartakovsky, Daniel M.

doi:10.1029/2007gl029245

Cited by 99 publications

(100 citation statements)

References 20 publications

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“…In this section we illustrate this approach for simplicity and completeness. Additional details about this methodology can be found in Tartakovsky (2007). For each event, we specify a number of sub-events following two models: (1) if any sub-event occurs, then the event will also occur, thus equivalent to an "OR" operator in Boolean logic; (2) all sub-events must occur for the event to Not enough water or quantity (QUAT): low water quality (physical, chemical, and biological), water scarcity (climate, river regulation, waste water treatment plant (WWTP) failure, quantity recharged does not reach some target value that makes it economically feasible ) and clogging (physical, biological, and chemical) water available does not reach the quality standards needed to allow it to be used in the recharge facility.…”

Section: Probabilistic Representation Of the Fault Treementioning

confidence: 99%

A risk assessment methodology to evaluate the risk failure of managed aquifer recharge in the Mediterranean Basin

Rodríguez‐Escales

Canelles

Sánchez-Vila

et al. 2018

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. Managed aquifer recharge (MAR) can be affected by many risks. Those risks are related to different technical and non-technical aspects of recharge, like water availability, water quality, legislation, social issues, etc. Many other works have acknowledged risks of this nature theoretically; however, their quantification and definition has not been developed. In this study, the risk definition and quantification has been performed by means of "fault trees" and probabilistic risk assessment (PRA). We defined a fault tree with 65 basic events applicable to the operation phase. After that, we have applied this methodology to six different managed aquifer recharge sites located in the Mediterranean Basin (Portugal, Spain, Italy, Malta, and Israel). The probabilities of the basic events were defined by expert criteria, based on the knowledge of the different managers of the facilities. From that, we conclude that in all sites, the perception of the expert criteria of the non-technical aspects were as much or even more important than the technical aspects. Regarding the risk results, we observe that the total risk in three of the six sites was equal to or above 0.90. That would mean that the MAR facilities have a risk of failure equal to or higher than 90 % in the period of 2-6 years. The other three sites presented lower risks (75, 29, and 18 % for Malta, Menashe, and Serchio, respectively).

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Section: Probabilistic Representation Of the Fault Treementioning

confidence: 99%

A risk assessment methodology to evaluate the risk failure of managed aquifer recharge in the Mediterranean Basin

Rodríguez‐Escales

Canelles

Sánchez-Vila

et al. 2018

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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“…Section 3 contains a derivation of our general approach, which enables one to express solute breakthrough curves (BTCs) at a control plane and their temporal moments in terms of the statistics of uncertain hydraulic conductivity and reaction rate constants. The approach results in closed-form analytical expressions, which makes it suitable for both parameter identification procedures (inverse modelling) and probabilistic risk assessment (Tartakovsky 2007). In §4, we demonstrate the salient features of the general approach by applying it to transport of solutes undergoing bimolecular chemical reactions.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Lagrangian models of reactive transport in heterogeneous porous media with uncertain properties

et al. 2011

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We consider multi-component reactive transport in heterogeneous porous media with uncertain hydraulic and chemical properties. This parametric uncertainty is quantified by treating relevant flow and transport parameters as random fields, which renders the governing equations stochastic. We adopt a stochastic Lagrangian framework to replace a three-dimensional advection-reaction transport equation with a one-dimensional equation for solute travel times. We derive approximate expressions for breakthrough curves and their temporal moments. To illustrate our general theory, we consider advective transport of dissolved species undergoing an irreversible bimolecular reaction.

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“…In the context of climate change, taking into account the uncertainty affecting hydrological parameters is even more important to make accurate predictions. In general, uncertainties are linked to (i) the incomplete knowledge of system dynamics (epistemic uncertainty), and (ii) the randomness which is inherent to natural phenomena (aleatory uncertainty) [30,31]. This uncertainty, propagating towards the state variables of interest through a selected analytical or numerical model, has to be properly considered in a probabilistic framework.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Saltwater Intrusion in Coastal Aquifers: A Primary Case Study along the Adriatic Coast Investigated within a Probabilistic Framework

Felisa

Ciriello

Federico

2013

Water

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Abstract:Environmentally sensitive areas along coastlines may be adversely affected by saltwater intrusion (SI), a condition which can be worsened by extensive groundwater extraction. Given the uncertainty of problem parameters, the risk of contamination of the vegetation capture zone needs to be cast in a probabilistic framework. In order to exemplify real situations existing along the Adriatic coast of Emilia-Romagna, a case study involving a pinewood strip and a well field drawing freshwater from an unconfined coastal aquifer was examined. On the basis of a widely adopted sharp interface formulation, key hydrogeological problem parameters were modeled as random variables, and a global sensitivity analysis was carried out to determine their influence on the position of the interface. This analysis utilized an efficient model reduction technique based on Polynomial Chaos Expansion. The risk that saltwater intrusion affects coastal vegetation was then evaluated via a two-step procedure by computing the probability that (i) the leading edge of the saltwater wedge reaches the sensitive area in the horizontal plane, and (ii) the freshwater/saltwater interface reaches the capture zone. The influence of the design parameters of the well field on the overall probability of contamination was investigated, revealing the primary role of the pumping discharge in the examined configuration.

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Probabilistic risk analysis in subsurface hydrology

Cited by 99 publications

References 20 publications

A risk assessment methodology to evaluate the risk failure of managed aquifer recharge in the Mediterranean Basin

A risk assessment methodology to evaluate the risk failure of managed aquifer recharge in the Mediterranean Basin

Lagrangian models of reactive transport in heterogeneous porous media with uncertain properties

Saltwater Intrusion in Coastal Aquifers: A Primary Case Study along the Adriatic Coast Investigated within a Probabilistic Framework

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