Probabilistic Risk Analysis of Diversion Tunnel Construction Simulation

Yu, Jia; Zhong, Dexing; Ren, Bingyu; Tong, Dawei; Hong, Kun

doi:10.1111/mice.12276

Cited by 29 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 85 publications

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“…The authors of reference [29] stated that tunnelling projects have always had a high level of risk. This is primarily due to the increasing cost as a result of the unforeseen geological conditions; for instance, a fault zone, a karst cavity or even another lithological unit with a different behaviour that is not identified in the ground model.…”

Section: Main Challenges In Cost Assessment In Tunnellingmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Consequently, it is obvious that the clients are well aware of the geotechnical risks, but they are unwilling to spend more money in site investigation. The authors of reference [29] also investigated the cost data from various tunnels (rail, road, utility) in 35 countries and previous studies producing a dataset of 158 tunnelling projects. The results of this cost analysis show that the most significant factor of the construction cost is influenced by the excavation method in all different types of tunnels.…”

Section: How Much Does the Geology Affect The Total Cost Of A Tunnel?mentioning

confidence: 99%

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Cost Overruns in Tunnelling Projects: Investigating the Impact of Geological and Geotechnical Uncertainty Using Case Studies

Paraskevopoulou

Boutsis

2020

Infrastructures

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Tunnelling projects seldom meet the initial budget requirements. Commonly, these types of projects suffer from cost overruns, which subsequently lead to project delivery delays mainly due to unsuccessful ground investigation as specified in the literature. The presented work scrutinises the effect of ground investigation in cost overruns. More specifically, various cost figures (total cost, construction cost, tunnel cost) are analysed for two case studies i) the Channel tunnel in the UK and ii) the Olmos Tunnel in Peru. Clayton’s relation between ground investigation and the construction cost is utilised and further investigated. In the Channel tunnel, the main problems faced led to a cost overrun of 78% for the total cost, 66% for the construction cost and 77% for the tunnelling cost. In the Olmos tunnel, two main geological scenarios are analysed and the construction cost overrun is calculated at 9.6% and 6.7%. Drawing on the conclusions, this research work proves that ground investigation can be one of the major factors influencing the tunnel cost.

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Section: Main Challenges In Cost Assessment In Tunnellingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: How Much Does the Geology Affect The Total Cost Of A Tunnel?mentioning

confidence: 99%

Cost Overruns in Tunnelling Projects: Investigating the Impact of Geological and Geotechnical Uncertainty Using Case Studies

Paraskevopoulou

Boutsis

2020

Infrastructures

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“…This method involves the organization and analysis of the accident database of a deep foundation pit project in Shanghai, allowing for the accurate prediction of the probability of risk events occurring and the determination of the overall risk of the deep foundation pit project. Yu [9] et al combined the construction simulation technology with Bayesian network, embedded the Bayesian network in the hierarchical simulation model, quantitatively calculated the probability of occurrence of risk events, and realized the Bayesian forward reasoning.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Structural Safety Assessment of the Transmission Tower Using Bayesian Network

Sun,

Ou,

et al. 2024

ACETR

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To clarify the disaster-causing factors and preventive measure for the transmission tower, a structural safety assessment method based on Bayesian network is proposed in this study. Firstly, various disaster-causing factors triggering structural damage of transmission towers are systematically analyzed, and three layers network model is constructed based on Bayesian causality. And then, the a priori probability and conditional probability of the network model are quantitatively calculated by combining expert scoring and fuzzy theory. A connectivity tree is formed by building a doxastic map and eliminating elements of the Build Constructive Tree (BuildCT) algorithm. Finally, forward and backward reasoning algorithm using the monitoring data is implemented to capture probabilities of disaster-causing and resulting factors for maintenance. Results shows that the possibility of wind bias tripping is the most feasible factor to be triggered under specific meteorological conditions condition, which is in line with expectation of experts. And strong winds and Serious icing are the key causative factors for tower disconnection and excessive deformation.

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“…Another serious accident during the metro construction in Sao Paulo (Barton, 2008), seven lives were lost. The risk of tunnel construction is primarily assessed by the geological environment, surrounding rock stability, liner deformation, surrounding rock stress, and so on (Yu et al, 2017;Li et al, 2019).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Construction risk control technology of a large tunnel complex in urban area

Gao

Kong²,

Wu³

et al. 2022

Front. Earth Sci.

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The stability of the surrounding rock analysis and evaluation during tunnel construction is the basis of tunnel construction risk control. In this paper, we focus on the stability of a large-scale transportation tunnel complex during its construction in a densely-populated urban area. The tunnel complex includes seven shallow-buried tunnels with large cross-sections. In order to gain insight into the excavation influence of the different tunnels, stability analyses were first carried out using FLAC3D numerical simulation. Results showed that the tunnels were subjected to heave and crown settlement induced by adjacent excavation. Also, stress concentrated in the rock blocks connecting different tunnels. Subsequently, a bench-scale model test was performed to understand the failure of the rock blocks and to examine the accuracy of the numerical simulation. The test results agreed well with the numerical simulation. Based on the numerical and test results, the mechanism of the rock blocks failure was explained and construction risk control technology to stabilize the rock blocks was proposed. The construction risk analyses revealed: 1) tunnels are subjected to significant heave due to the excavation of tunnels located above; 2) the stability of the rock blocks is the paramount determinant for stabilizing the whole tunnel complex; 3) ensuring rock blocks to be in a state of triaxial stress is conducive to its stability and hence the stability of multiple tunnels.

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Probabilistic Risk Analysis of Diversion Tunnel Construction Simulation

Cited by 29 publications

References 85 publications

Cost Overruns in Tunnelling Projects: Investigating the Impact of Geological and Geotechnical Uncertainty Using Case Studies

Cost Overruns in Tunnelling Projects: Investigating the Impact of Geological and Geotechnical Uncertainty Using Case Studies

Structural Safety Assessment of the Transmission Tower Using Bayesian Network

Construction risk control technology of a large tunnel complex in urban area

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