Probabilistic Sea Level Projections at the Coast by 2100

Jevrejeva, Svetlana; Frederikse, Thomas; Kopp, Robert; Cozannet, Gonéri Le; Jackson, Luke; Wal, R. S. W. van de

doi:10.1007/s10712-019-09550-y

Cited by 74 publications

(50 citation statements)

References 118 publications

(224 reference statements)

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“…In other words, the LFCIV is an oceanic driver of coastal sea-level changes in the turbulent regime, which may compete with the external drivers examined in Woodworth et al (2019) and with the ocean-atmosphere coupled modes presented by Han et al (2019). More importantly, the random character of LFCIV suggests that it actually constitutes a source of uncertainty for the detection and attribution of coastal sea-level trends, in addition to those simulated by climate models (Carson et al 2019), and that these uncertainties should also be taken into account for coastal sea-level projections (see Jevrejeva et al 2019).…”

Section: Conclusion and Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Trends of Coastal Sea Level Between 1993 and 2015: Imprints of Atmospheric Forcing and Oceanic Chaos

Penduff

Llovel

et al. 2019

Surv Geophys

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The observation and simulation of the variability of coastal sea level are impacted by various uncertainties, such as measurement errors and sampling biases, unresolved processes, and model and forcing biases. Ocean model simulations suggest that another uncertainty should be taken into account for the attribution of sea-level changes. Global ocean simulations indeed show that resolving mesoscale turbulence (even partly) promotes the emergence of low-frequency (LF) chaotic intrinsic variability (CIV) which causes substantial random fluctuations of sea level up to multiple decades in eddy-active regions of the world ocean. This random LFCIV is superimposed on the atmospherically forced (or simply "forced") fluctuations, which are directly controlled by the atmospheric variability. We show from a large ensemble of global oceanic hindcasts that this multi-decadal LFCIV leaves a substantial imprint on the long-term trends (1993-2015) of coastal sea level: over 17-20% of the global ocean coastal area, in particular along the coastlines of the northwestern Pacific and Indian Oceans, and around the Gulf of Mexico, random sealevel trends may blur their atmospherically forced counterpart, such that simulated (and potentially observed) coastal sea-level trends cannot be unambiguously attributed to atmospheric or anthropic causes. The steric and manometric sea-level change contributions of these uncertainties are discussed, suggesting that they mostly come from the manometric sea-level trends near the coasts.

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Section: Conclusion and Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Trends of Coastal Sea Level Between 1993 and 2015: Imprints of Atmospheric Forcing and Oceanic Chaos

Penduff

Llovel

et al. 2019

Surv Geophys

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“…Section briefly reviews projections of future sea‐level change, highlighting key uncertainties that are relevant for decision making. More detailed reviews are available in several recent papers and assessment reports (e.g., Church et al, ; Clark et al, ; Oppenheimer et al, ; A. J. Garner et al, ; Horton et al, ; Jevrejeva et al, ; Slangen et al, ). Section examines the translation of future sea‐level change to extreme sea levels and related attempts to assess flooding on the current coastline.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Usable Science for Managing the Risks of Sea‐Level Rise

et al. 2019

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Sea-level rise sits at the frontier of usable climate climate change research, because it involves natural and human systems with long lags, irreversible losses, and deep uncertainty. For example, many of the measures to adapt to sea-level rise involve infrastructure and land-use decisions, which can have multigenerational lifetimes and will further influence responses in both natural and human systems. Thus, sea-level science has increasingly grappled with the implications of (1) deep uncertainty in future climate system projections, particularly of human emissions and ice sheet dynamics; (2) the overlay of slow trends and high-frequency variability (e.g., tides and storms) that give rise to many of the most relevant impacts; (3) the effects of changing sea level on the physical exposure and vulnerability of ecological and socioeconomic systems; and (4) the challenges of engaging stakeholder communities with the scientific process in a way that genuinely increases the utility of the science for adaptation decision making. Much fundamental climate system research remains to be done, but many of the most critical issues sit at the intersection of natural sciences, social sciences, engineering, decision science, and political economy. Addressing these issues demands a better understanding of the coupled interactions of mean and extreme sea levels, coastal geomorphology, economics, and migration; decision-first approaches that identify and focus research upon those scientific uncertainties most relevant to concrete adaptation choices; and a political economy that allows usable science to become used science.Plain Language Summary The impacts of sea-level rise pose growing threats to coastal communities, economies, and ecosystems, and decisions made today-in areas like land-use policies, coastal development, and infrastructure investment-will affect exposure and vulnerability for generations to come. Thus, the usability of sea-level science is a pressing concern. Ensuring usability requires grappling with deep uncertainty in long-term sea-level projections, the relationship between long-term trends and the impacts of short-lived extreme events, and the ways in which the physical coast, as well as people and ecosystems along the coast, respond to increasingly frequent flooding. At the same time, it also requires more extensive and deliberate stakeholder engagement throughout the scientific process, as well as cognizance of the political economy of linking stakeholder-engaged science to action.

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“…Previous work has shown that accounting for different physics in Antarctica can result in substantially different probabilistic projections of SLR by the end of the century (Jevrejeva et al, 2019;Kopp et al, 2019).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Role of Climate Sensitivity in Upper‐Tail Sea Level Rise Projections

Vega-Westhoff

Sriver

Hartin

et al. 2020

Geophysical Research Letters

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The current uncertainty surrounding the Earth's equilibrium climate sensitivity is an important driver for climate hazard projections. While the implications for projected global temperature changes have been extensively studied, the impacts on sea level projections have been relatively unexplored. Here we analyze the relationship between the climate sensitivity and sea level projections, with a particular focus on the high‐impact upper tail. We utilize a Bayesian calibration of key climate and sea level parameters using historical observations and the reduced‐complexity Earth system model, Hector‐BRICK. This methodology allows us to focus on plausible realizations of the climate system in a probabilistic framework. We analyze the effects of high‐end climate sensitivity (above 5 K) on projections and spatial patterns of sea level change. The sea level projections hinge critically on the upper tail of the climate sensitivity, especially for the highly decision‐relevant upper tail. Results have important implications for timing of threshold exceedances and regional variability.

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Probabilistic Sea Level Projections at the Coast by 2100

Cited by 74 publications

References 118 publications

Trends of Coastal Sea Level Between 1993 and 2015: Imprints of Atmospheric Forcing and Oceanic Chaos

Trends of Coastal Sea Level Between 1993 and 2015: Imprints of Atmospheric Forcing and Oceanic Chaos

Usable Science for Managing the Risks of Sea‐Level Rise

The Role of Climate Sensitivity in Upper‐Tail Sea Level Rise Projections

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