2023
DOI: 10.21203/rs.3.rs-3604979/v1
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Probabilistic Seasonal Precipitation Forecasts Using Quantiles of Ensemble Forecasts

Huidong Jin,
Mona E. Mahani,
Ming Li
et al.

Abstract: Seasonal precipitation forecasting is vital for weather-sensitive sectors. Global Circulation Models (GCM) routinely produce ensemble Seasonal Climate Forecasts (SCFs) but suffer from issues like low forecast resolution and skills. To address these issues in this study, we introduce a post-processing method, Quantile Ensemble Bayesian Model Averaging (QEBMA). It utilises quantiles from a GCM ensemble forecast to create a pseudo-ensemble forecast. Through their reasonable linear relationships with observations,… Show more

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