Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment for Taiwan

Wang, Yu Ju; Chan, Chung-Han; Lee, Ya Ting; Fong, Kuo; Ôta, Yôko; Rau, R.; Cheng, Colin C.J.

doi:10.3319/tao.2016.05.03.01(tem)

Cited by 70 publications

(59 citation statements)

References 17 publications

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“…This information has already been utilized as the seismogenic source model to calculate a first version of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis for Taiwan (Wang et al 2016). As more data become available, either through the ongoing TEM and other scientific research projects or as regular updating efforts by the government agencies, we hope this database will continue to improve and provide better constraints for future seismic hazard assessments for Taiwan.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A New On-Land Seismogenic Structure Source Database from the Taiwan Earthquake Model (TEM) Project for Seismic Hazard Analysis of Taiwan

Ôta¹,

Chuang²,

Chen³

et al. 2016

Terr. Atmos. Ocean. Sci.

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Taiwan is located at an active plate boundary and prone to earthquake hazards. To evaluate the island's seismic risk, the Taiwan Earthquake Model (TEM) project, supported by the Ministry of Sciences and Technology, evaluates earthquake hazard, risk, and related social and economic impact models for Taiwan through multidisciplinary collaboration. One of the major tasks of TEM is to construct a complete and updated seismogenic structure database for Taiwan to assess future seismic hazards. Toward this end, we have combined information from pre-existing databases and data obtained from new analyses to build an updated and digitized three-dimensional seismogenic structure map for Taiwan. Thirty-eight on-land active seismogenic structures are identified. For detailed information of individual structures such as their long-term slip rates and potential recurrence intervals, we collected data from existing publications, as well as calculated from results of our own field surveys and investigations. We hope this updated database would become a significant constraint for seismic hazard assessment calculations in Taiwan, and would provide important information for engineers and hazard mitigation agencies.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A New On-Land Seismogenic Structure Source Database from the Taiwan Earthquake Model (TEM) Project for Seismic Hazard Analysis of Taiwan

Ôta¹,

Chuang²,

Chen³

et al. 2016

Terr. Atmos. Ocean. Sci.

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“…It would also question the validity of physics-based models postulating the existence of long term stress shadows. One well-known example of those models is the Brownian oscillator leading the Brownian Passage Time (BPT) recurrence time distribution of earthquakes (Matthews et al 2002), which is used for seismic hazard assessments, for example, in Taiwan (Wang et al 2016). It assumes a fixed stress threshold and drop but a variable stress loading history modelled by a random walk with drift, where the degree of randomness correlates to the aperiodicity value (α = standard deviation divided by the mean) of the BPT distribution.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Testing stress shadowing effects at the South American subduction zone

Roth¹,

Dahm²,

Hainzl³

2017

Geophysical Journal International

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S U M M A R YThe seismic gap hypothesis assumes that a characteristic earthquake is followed by a long period with a reduced occurrence probability for the next large event on the same fault segment, as a consequence of the induced stress shadow. The gap model is commonly accepted by geologists and is often used for time-dependent seismic hazard estimations. However, systematic and rigorous tests to verify the seismic gap model have often failed so far, which might be partially related to limited data and too tight model assumptions. In this study, we relax the assumption of a characteristic size and location of repeating earthquakes and analyse one of the best available data sets, namely the historical record of major earthquakes along a 3000 km long linear segment of the South American subduction zone. To test whether a stress shadow effect is observable, we compiled a comprehensive catalogue of mega-thrust earthquakes along this plate boundary from 1520 to 2015 containing 174 earthquakes with M w > 6.5. In our new testing approach, we analyse the time span between an earthquake and the last event that ruptured the epicentre location, where we consider the impact of the uncertainties of epicentres and rupture extensions. Assuming uniform boundary conditions along the trench, we compare the distribution of these recurrence times with simple recurrence models. We find that the distribution is in all cases almost exponentially distributed corresponding to a random (Poissonian) process; despite some tendencies for clustering of the M w ≥ 7 events and a weak quasi-periodicity of the M w ≥ 8 earthquakes, respectively. To verify whether the absence of a clear stress shadow signal is related to physical assumptions or data uncertainties, we perform simulations of a physics-based stochastic earthquake model considering rate and state-dependent earthquake nucleation, which are adapted to the observations with regard to the number of events, spatial extend, size distribution and involved uncertainties. Our simulations show that the catalogue uncertainties lead to a significant blurring of the theoretically peaked distribution, but the distribution would be still distinguishable from the observed one for M w ≥ 7 events. However, considering the stress transfer to adjacent fault segments and heterogeneous instead of constant stress drop within the rupture zone can explain the observed recurrence time distribution. We conclude that simplified recurrence models, ignoring the complexity of the underlying physical process, cannot be applied for forecasting the M w ≥ 7 earthquake occurrence at this plate boundary.

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“…The Taiwan Earthquake Model (TEM) published a seismic hazard map of Taiwan at the end of 2015 (Wang et al 2016b), and indicated a relatively high seismic hazard level in southern Taiwan. The hazard in Tainan may reach SA0.3 of 1.5 g with 10% PoE in 50 years, due to moderate earthquakes with short recurrence intervals and short distances.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The 2016 Meinong earthquake to TEM PSHA2015

Lee¹,

Wang²,

Chan³

et al. 2017

Terr. Atmos. Ocean. Sci.

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On 6 February 2016 (UTC 19:57), the Meinong earthquake with Richter magnitude (M L ) 6.6 struck southern Taiwan and caused hundreds of damaged buildings, resulting in 117 casualties. We investigated the relationship between the damaged buildings and the ground motion in the forms of peak ground acceleration (PGA), peak ground velocity (PGV), pseudo-spectral acceleration (SA) at 0.3 s (SA0.3), 1.0 s (SA1.0), and shaking duration to identify which ground motion parameter most represents building damage. PGV and SA1.0 present better correlation with consequent damage. The Intensity converted from PGV presents better correlation to the damage than PGA. We disaggregated the TEM PSHA2015 hazard contribution to the Meinong earthquake damage region (Southern Taiwan) from different seismic source typologies to clarify the seismic source contributing to the hazard. The hazards contributed by the Meinong earthquake were 16, 26, and 23% for PGA, SA0.3, and SA1.0, respectively. The predicted seismic hazard source areas were 38, 61, and 75% for PGA, SA0.3, and SA1.0, respectively, for the PSHA with a return period of 475 years. This result indicates that the 2016 Meinong earthquake did partially diminish the seismic hazard potential in southern Taiwan. However, more than about 80% of the seismic hazard potential, especially the fault sources were not yet released. These values suggest that the seismic hazard potential in southern Taiwan remains high regardless of the 2016 Meinong earthquake.

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Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment for Taiwan

Cited by 70 publications

References 17 publications

A New On-Land Seismogenic Structure Source Database from the Taiwan Earthquake Model (TEM) Project for Seismic Hazard Analysis of Taiwan

A New On-Land Seismogenic Structure Source Database from the Taiwan Earthquake Model (TEM) Project for Seismic Hazard Analysis of Taiwan

Testing stress shadowing effects at the South American subduction zone

The 2016 Meinong earthquake to TEM PSHA2015

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