Probabilistic seismic source inversion of the 1886 Charleston, South Carolina, earthquake from macroseismic evidence: A major updating

Rasanen, Ryan A.; Maurer, Brett W.

doi:10.1016/j.enggeo.2022.106958

Cited by 3 publications

(1 citation statement)

References 62 publications

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“…Hough et al, 2000), and a large earthquake (magnitude: 7) that occurred in 1886, the Charleston earthquake (e.g. Rasanen and Maurer, 2023). The seismic hazard for the 23 CEUS sites has been recently updated as a final outcome of the Generic Issue 199 (GI-199), initiated by the US-NRC in 2005 (US-NRC, 2010) and subsumed within the post-Fukushima activities requested by the US-NRC to the US NPPs.…”

Section: Database Of Sshac Level 3 Studiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Mean-to-median spectral acceleration ratios in Senior Seismic Hazard Analysis Committee Level 3 probabilistic seismic hazard analyses: An analysis of reported results

Valentini,

Beltran

2024

Earthquake Spectra

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In many countries, seismic characterization of the site selected for a critical structure or industrial facility is required in terms of site-specific seismic ground motion hazard. For this purpose, a probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA), performed under the Senior Seismic Hazard Analysis Committee (SSHAC) protocol, is an extended practice for nuclear facilities. In the past decade, SSHAC Level 3 studies have been performed for sites in North America, Europe, Japan, Taiwan, and South Africa. When analyzing PSHA results, the mean-to-median spectral acceleration ratios given by the hazard curves can be interpreted as a measure of the degree of epistemic uncertainty associated with the results. In this article, results of 33 SSHAC Level 3 studies have been used to determine mean-to-median spectral acceleration ratios and the statistics of these ratios, as a function of spectral frequency and annual frequency of exceedance (AFE). The purpose was to develop a reference for the range of uncertainty that is typically captured in this kind of studies. It has been found that, for a given AFE, ratios corresponding to different sites are within a relatively small interval, especially for the spectral frequency band between 2.5 and 10 Hz, which is the band normally more relevant for the seismic design of nuclear installations. In this band, for 10−4 yr−1 AFE, a mean/median ratio of 1.40 would envelop practically all investigated sites.

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Section: Database Of Sshac Level 3 Studiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Mean-to-median spectral acceleration ratios in Senior Seismic Hazard Analysis Committee Level 3 probabilistic seismic hazard analyses: An analysis of reported results

Valentini,

Beltran

2024

Earthquake Spectra

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The 1886 Charleston, South Carolina, Earthquake: Intensities and Ground Motions

Hough,

Bilham

2024

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America

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The 1 September 1886 Charleston, South Carolina, earthquake was one of the largest preinstrumental earthquakes in eastern North America for which extensive contemporaneous observations were documented. The distribution of shaking was mapped shortly after the earthquake, and reconsidered by several authors in the late twentieth century, but has not been reconsidered with a modern appreciation for issues associated with macroseismic data interpretation. Detailed contemporary accounts have also never been used to map the distribution of numerical shaking intensities in the near field. In this study we reconsider macroseismic data from far-field accounts as well as detailed accounts of damage in the near field, estimating modified Mercalli intensity values at 1297 locations including over 200 definite “not felt” reports that delineate the overall felt extent. We compare the results to the suite of ground-motion models for eastern North America selected by the National Seismic Hazard Model, using a recently proposed mainshock rupture model and an average site condition for the locations at which intensities are estimated. The comparison supports the moment magnitude estimate, 7.3, from a recently proposed rupture model (Bilham and Hough, 2023). A ShakeMap constrained by model predictions and estimated intensities further illustrates this consistency, which we show is insensitive to rupture model details. Given the uncertainty of calibration relations for magnitudes close to 7, the overall intensity distribution provides a good characterization of shaking but cannot improve the independent moment magnitude estimate. We also identify a previously unrecognized early large aftershock that occurred 9–10 min after the mainshock, for which we estimate magnitude ∼5.6.

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Landslide Prediction Validation in Western North Carolina After Hurricane Helene

Lin,

Chen,

Rasanen

et al. 2024

Geotechnics

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Hurricane Helene triggered 1792 landslides across western North Carolina and has caused damage to 79 bridges to date. Helene hit western North Carolina days after a low-pressure system dropped up to 254 mm of rain in some locations of western North Carolina (e.g., Asheville Regional Airport). The already waterlogged region experienced devastation as significant additional rainfall occurred during Helene, where some areas, like Asheville, North Carolina received an additional 356 mm of rain (National Weather Service, 2024). In this study, machine learning (ML)-generated multi-hazard landslide susceptibility maps are compared to the documented landslides from Helene. The landslide models use the North Carolina landslide database, soil survey, rainfall, USGS digital elevation model (DEM), and distance to rivers to create the landslide variables. From the DEM, aspect factors and slope are computed. Because recent research in western North Carolina suggests fault movement is destabilizing slopes, distance to fault was also incorporated as a predictor variable. Finally, soil types were used as a wildfire predictor variable. In total, 4794 landslides were used for model training. Random Forest and logistic regression machine learning algorithms were used to develop the landslide susceptibility map. Furthermore, landslide susceptibility was also examined with and without consideration of wildfires. Ultimately, this study indicates heavy rainfall and debris-laden floodwaters were critical in triggering both landslides and scour, posing a dual threat to bridge stability. Field investigations from Hurricane Helene revealed that bridge damage was concentrated at bridge abutments, with scour and sediment deposition exacerbating structural vulnerability. We evaluated the assumed flooding potential (AFP) of damaged bridges in the study area, finding that bridges with lower AFP values were particularly vulnerable to scour and submersion during flood events. Differentiating between landslide-induced and scour-induced damage is essential for accurately assessing risks to infrastructure. The findings emphasize the importance of comprehensive hazard mapping to guide infrastructure resilience planning in mountainous regions.

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Probabilistic seismic source inversion of the 1886 Charleston, South Carolina, earthquake from macroseismic evidence: A major updating

Cited by 3 publications

References 62 publications

Mean-to-median spectral acceleration ratios in Senior Seismic Hazard Analysis Committee Level 3 probabilistic seismic hazard analyses: An analysis of reported results

Mean-to-median spectral acceleration ratios in Senior Seismic Hazard Analysis Committee Level 3 probabilistic seismic hazard analyses: An analysis of reported results

The 1886 Charleston, South Carolina, Earthquake: Intensities and Ground Motions

Landslide Prediction Validation in Western North Carolina After Hurricane Helene

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