Probabilistic simulation model of fragmentation risk

Djelosevic, Mirko; Tepic, Goran

doi:10.1016/j.jlp.2019.04.003

Cited by 11 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 29 publications

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“…Probabilistic analysis of influential fragmentation factors is an efficient way of distinguishing between epistemic and aleatoric uncertainty. The probabilistic approach is based on the use of the probabilistic mass method which was originally developed by Djelosevic and Tepic [37,38]. The main purpose of this method is the assessment of tank fragmentation probabilities on the basis of ideal values and the mass factor.…”

Section: Probabilistic Approachmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The aerodynamic properties of the fragments have a great influence on its kinematic parameters and are reflected in the uncertainty of the shape [36]. Djelosevic and Tepic conducted a complex study of cylindrical tank fragmentation in terms of identifying aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty [37,38]. The same authors established a correlation of geometric and kinematic parameters of fragments, stating the importance of simulation technique in fragmentation analysis.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Simulation Model of Fragmentation Risk

Djelosevic¹,

Tepic²

2022

Simulation Modeling

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In this chapter, a simulation model for fragmentation risk assessment due to a cylindrical tank explosion is presented. The proposed fragmentation methodology is based on the application of Monte Carlo simulation and probabilistic mass method. The probabilities of generating fragments during the explosion of the tank were estimated regardless of the available accident data. Aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty due to tank fragmentation has been identified. Generating only one fragment is accompanied by aleatoric uncertainty. The maximum fragmentation probability corresponds to the generation of two fragments with a total mass between 1200 kg and 2400 kg and is 17%. The fragment shape was assessed on the basis of these data and fracture lines. Fragmentation mechanics has shown that kinematic parameters are accompanied by epistemic uncertainty. The range of the fragments in the explosion of the tank has a Weibull distribution with an average value of 638 m. It is not justified to assume the initial launch angle with a uniform distribution, since its direction is defined by the shape of the fragment. The presented methodology is generally applicable to fragmentation problems in the process industry.

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Section: Probabilistic Approachmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Simulation Model of Fragmentation Risk

Djelosevic¹,

Tepic²

2022

Simulation Modeling

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“…The fragmentation and posterior projections generated by a primary explosion produced in tanks or equipment containing highly pressurized gas or liquids in general lead to catastrophic failures due to the successive explosions generated by the fragments' projection, creating secondary accidents, and possibly tertiary, until the process stops. Effects can be assessed by analysis or using a Monte Carlo simulation; in general, three main steps of analysis are required [80][81][82][83][84][85][86]:…”

Section: Domino Effect Treatmentmentioning

confidence: 99%

Analysis and Characterization of Risk Methodologies Applied to Industrial Parks

et al. 2020

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It is important to evaluate the risks in industrial parks and their processes due to the consequences of major accidents and especially the domino effect. Scientific works present a wide possibility of models to deal with these situations. In this work, based on the information extracted from the scientific literature, six groups of risk methodologies are defined, analyzed, and characterized with methods that cover the standards, preventive, probabilistic, traditional, modern, and dynamic evaluation that are applied or could be used in industrial parks. It also tries to achieve the objective of determining which are more appropriate if the possible situations and causes that can produce an accident are taken into account, identifying and evaluating them with characteristics of simultaneity and immediacy, determining the probability of an accident occurring with sufficient advance in time to avoid it under the use of a working operational procedure. There is no definitive methodology, and it is necessary that they complement each other, but considering the proposed objective, the integrated application of traditional methodologies together with the management of safety barriers, the dynamic evaluation of risks, and the inclusion of machine learning systems could fulfill the proposed objective.

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“…Statistical models can be used in limited situations based on specific experiments and may not be appropriate for a specific case [5]. Djelosevic and Tepic introduced the probabilistic mass method [6], Ahmed et al utilized the arbitrary Lagrangian-Eulerian approach [3], and Ugrčić adapted the stochastic failure theory [7] fragmentation analysis of metallic objects. The simulation results can be utilized as initial data for the point mass trajectory model, described by a nonlinear system of ordinary differential equations (ODE).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The simulation results can be utilized as initial data for the point mass trajectory model, described by a nonlinear system of ordinary differential equations (ODE). Kljuno and Catovic [8], Szmelter and Lee [9] used the Runge-Kutta numerical method, and Djelosevic and Tepic [6] used the Taylor series numerical method to solve the ODE system.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Dynamics of flight of the fragments with higher order Haar wavelet method

Kivistik,

Mehrparvar,

Eerme

et al. 2024

PEAS

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Fragments that have an irregular shape and move at high speeds are difficult to assess since experiments require high-tech solutions, and the differential equations that describe the motion cannot be solved analytically. Different numerical and function approximation methods are used to find the trajectory model. This work uses a state-of-the-art, higher order Haar wavelet method to approximate the trajectory model with empirically determined drag force. The initial conditions of the flight of the fragments are determined by the finite element method. The results obtained by utilizing the Haar wavelet method and the higher order Haar wavelet method are compared. The higher order Haar wavelet method outperforms the Haar wavelet method but allows for keeping the implementation complexity of the method in the same range. Utilizing the higher order Haar wavelet method leads to a reduction in the computational cost since the same accuracy with the Haar wavelet method can be achieved with the use of several order lower mesh.

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Probabilistic simulation model of fragmentation risk

Cited by 11 publications

References 29 publications

Simulation Model of Fragmentation Risk

Simulation Model of Fragmentation Risk

Analysis and Characterization of Risk Methodologies Applied to Industrial Parks

Dynamics of flight of the fragments with higher order Haar wavelet method

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