Probabilistic Transport-Induced Emissions and Health Risks for Adelaide, South Australia

Abstract

The research aims to assess the risks associated with the transport-induced emissions (major criteria pollutants) in Adelaide, South Australia. A stochastic emission modelling strategy was implemented for a probabilistic risk assessment of the transport system for current and future scenarios, by analysing the road specific transport system data. The simulated result suggests that NOx and PM2.5 risks are significant at about 35% of city areas, especially along the roads with heavy vehicle concentration and higher traffic. The risk will significantly increase in 10 years if the current practice persists, demonstrating a high probability (more than 60%) of emissions above 150% of the air quality standard. The research suggests that appropriate planning is necessary to cope with the development needs for the system’s future sustainability.