Probabilities of earthquake occurrences in Mainland Southeast Asia

Pailoplee, Santi; Choowong, Montri

doi:10.1007/s12517-012-0749-5

Cited by 13 publications

(26 citation statements)

References 23 publications

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“…Similarly, Pailoplee and Choowong (2013) evaluated the earthquake activities for the bulk of SASZ region. The most probable maximum magnitudes, and recurrence intervals, including the probabilities of earthquake occurrence, were estimated approximately using the FMD analyzed from the seismicity data.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Probabilities of Earthquake Occurrences along the Sumatra-Andaman Subduction Zone

Pailoplee¹

2017

Open Geosciences

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Earthquake activities along the SumatraAndaman Subduction Zone (SASZ) were clarified using the derived frequency-magnitude distribution in terms of the (i) most probable maximum magnitudes, (ii) return periods and (iii) probabilities of earthquake occurrences. The northern segment of SASZ, along the western coast of Myanmar to southern Nicobar, was found to be capable of generating an earthquake of magnitude 6.1-6.4 Mw in the next 30-50 years, whilst the southern segment of offshore of the northwestern and western parts of Sumatra (defined as a high hazard region) had a short recurrence interval of 6-12 and 10-30 years for a 6.0 and 7.0 Mw magnitude earthquake, respectively, compared to the other regions. Throughout the area along the SASZ, there are 70-almost 100% probabilities of the earthquake with Mw up to 6.0 might be generated in the next 50 years whilst the northern segment had less than 50% chance of occurrence of a 7.0 Mw earthquake in the next 50 year. Although Rangoon was defined as the lowest hazard among the major city in the vicinity of SASZ, there is 90% chance of a 6.0 Mw earthquake in the next 50 years. Therefore, the effective mitigation plan of seismic hazard should be contributed.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Probabilities of Earthquake Occurrences along the Sumatra-Andaman Subduction Zone

Pailoplee¹

2017

Open Geosciences

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“…However, in practice this data cannot always be perfectly compiled and this is the case here for Laos. Some models of the seismic source zones within the study area have been proposed previously (Nutalaya et al 1985;Charusiri et al 2005;Pailoplee and Choowong 2013), but these models suggested that Laos and the adjacent areas were the same seismic source. In order to gain more details in the SHA, in this study the seismic source in Laos and the adjacent areas were newly defined from the return period map of the M w -6.0 earthquake (Fig.…”

Section: Seismic Source Zonation and Parameterizationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Analyses of seismic activities and hazards in Laos: A seismicity approach

Pailoplee¹,

Charusiri²

2017

Terr. Atmos. Ocean. Sci.

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The seismic activities and hazards in People's Democratic Republic Laos were analyzed using the most up-to-date seismicity data. Both the a-and b-values of the frequency-magnitude distribution model, including the return period of earthquake magnitude in the range of 5.0 -6.0 M w , were evaluated spatially in a region that extends 300 km from Laos. Six seismic source zones with different seismic activities were found. Based on these seismic source zones and a suitable attenuation model, seismic hazards were then analyzed in both deterministic and probabilistic scenarios. The deterministic map showed a possible maximum ground shaking up to 0.4 g in Northern Laos, whereas the ground shaking calculated from the probabilistic approach was < 0.32 g for 2% probability of exceedance in the next 50 yr. The probability of exceedance of an earthquake with a Modified Mercalli intensity scale of level IV -V, VI and VII in Laos in the next 50 yr was > 90, 70 -90, and 20 -40%, respectively, and was higher in the northern part. From these seismic activities and hazard analyses, Laos can be clearly separated into the three hazard zones of northwestern, northeastern and southern Laos with a high, medium and low earthquake hazard, respectively. Therefore, effective mitigation plans to reduce the impact of seismic hazards should be formulated and in particular for a number of major provinces located in the northern part of Laos.

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“…Therefore, in addition to the active faults recognized in this PSHA, the SSZs were also applied in this study as the background seismicity. Based on the available literature, there are at least three models of SSZs for mainland Southeast Asia (Nutalaya et al 1985;Charusiri et al 2005;Pailoplee and Choowong 2013). According to the updated data and reasonable assumptions, the 13 SSZs of zones A-M proposed by Pailoplee and Choowong (2013) were used in this study (Fig.…”

Section: Earthquake Sources and Activitiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Triangles denote the locations of the ten significant provinces recognized in this PSHA. b Seismic source zones (blue polygon) recognized in this PSHA (Pailoplee and Choowong 2013). The black squares are the new sites of paleoseismological investigations used in this study with more details shown in Fig.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The SSZs of mainland Southeast Asia have been modified (Fig. 1b) (Pailoplee and Choowong 2013), the seismicity data have been updated to the present (Pailoplee and Choowong 2014), new paleoseismological data have become available (Figs. 1b,2), and suitable attenuation models for Thailand have been constrained differently (Chintanapakdee et al 2008).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Seismic hazards in Thailand: a compilation and updated probabilistic analysis

Pailoplee

Charusiri

2016

Earth Planet Sp

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A probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) for Thailand was performed and compared to those of previous works. This PSHA was based upon (1) the most up-to-date paleoseismological data (slip rates), (2) the seismic source zones, (3) the seismicity parameters (a and b values), and (4) the strong ground-motion attenuation models suggested as being suitable models for Thailand. For the PSHA mapping, both the ground shaking and probability of exceedance (POE) were analyzed and mapped using various methods of presentation. In addition, site-specific PSHAs were demonstrated for ten major provinces within Thailand. For instance, a 2 and 10 % POE in the next 50 years of a 0.1-0.4 g and 0.1-0.2 g ground shaking, respectively, was found for western Thailand, defining this area as the most earthquake-prone region evaluated in Thailand. In a comparison between the ten selected specific provinces within Thailand, the Kanchanaburi and Tak provinces had comparatively high seismic hazards, and therefore, effective mitigation plans for these areas should be made. Although Bangkok was defined as being within a low seismic hazard in this PSHA, a further study of seismic wave amplification due to the soft soil beneath Bangkok is required.

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Probabilities of earthquake occurrences in Mainland Southeast Asia

Cited by 13 publications

References 23 publications

Probabilities of Earthquake Occurrences along the Sumatra-Andaman Subduction Zone

Probabilities of Earthquake Occurrences along the Sumatra-Andaman Subduction Zone

Analyses of seismic activities and hazards in Laos: A seismicity approach

Seismic hazards in Thailand: a compilation and updated probabilistic analysis

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