Probability, Causality and False Alarms using Correlations Between Strong Earthquakes and NOAA High Energy Electron Bursts

Abstract

A proposal for testing the feasibility of strong earthquake forecasting from space, using on board high energy particle detectors of existing NOAA polar satellites, is given. Previously, exceptional increases of particle fluxes prior to and after the largest quakes that struck the Indonesian and the Philippine areas were recently recognised utilising NOAA-15 particle telescopes. A statistically significant correlation between electron bursts of 30 -100 keV and large seismic events was calculated in previous publications, occurring 2 -3 hours between seismic events having M ≥ 6 and electron bursts. The 2 -3 hour correlation supports the hypothesis that there is a physical link between ionospheric charged particle motions at around 2,000 km and seismic activities when earthquake depths are less than 200 km. Taking into account the corresponding electron drift periods and the detector energy corrections, the time interval of a possible physical interaction between high energy electrons of the inner radiation belts and the earth's crust of the future earthquake epicentre has been reduced to about 4 -6.5 hours. A causal model is proposed for the entire process. Cross-correlation coefficients are calculated starting from the previously obtained correlations, so that a probability of earthquake forecasting corresponding to the 2 -3 hour peak can be evaluated. Based on these results, false alarms can be reduced in an experiment where such probability is used for one year of average seismic and electron loss detections. Finally, an experiment is proposed here, which is currently feasible using ongoing NOAA satellites and USA West Coast antennas to test the forecasting.

West Pacific Earthquake Forecasting Using NOAA Electron Bursts With Independent L-Shells and Ground-Based Magnetic Correlations

“…Several physical observations on the Earth's surface and from space have been successfully correlated with EQs. However, a conditional probability has only been obtained from the analysis of the NOAA satellites' precipitating electrons (Fidani, 2018;Fidani, 2019;Fidani, 2020), so it would be the most suitable methodology to be tested.…”

“…The EBs were detected high off the shore of the United States and the west coasts of South America, at longitudes between 200°and 280°. These different electron positions were associated in a causal way, due to the fact that electrons drift eastward and the EQ positions were located west of the EB detection positions (Fidani, 2018;Fidani, 2020). Being so, if the disturbances which caused electron precipitations from inner radiation belts occurred above the EQ epicenters in the ionosphere, they most likely anticipated the EQ times by 4-6.5 h.…”

“…Moreover, the L-shell condition is equivalent to setting a position above the future EQ epicenter where the detected EB passed. So, it might be the position where electrons escaped the trapped conditions following some remote interaction with the EQ preparation zone in the ground (Fidani, 2020). Given that each L-shell is associated with a well-defined altitude at each geographical point and a physical link is reasonably able to reach a certain maximal altitude, it is plausible that for each L-shell, there corresponds a more-or-less defined interval of geographical coordinates.…”

Foreword: Advances in Multi-Parametric, Time-Dependent Assessment of Seismic Hazard and Earthquakes Forecast

“…Such contributes can be grouped in a) long-term analyses devoted to qualify specific parameters also in terms of reliability of associated forecasts; b) preliminarily studies devoted to emphasize the contribution to the reduction of the space-time forecast volume by a multi-parametric approach; c) preliminarily studies devoted just to support the use of specific parameters and/or new data analysis methodologies for specific areas/period of time.To the first group belongs the papers by Genzano et al [2020], An et al [2020] and Fidani et al [2020]. The first one offers -also for Italy (after Greece [Elefteriou et al, 2016]) -a full qualification of a parameter (anomalies in thermally emitted Earth's radiation estimated by the Robust Satellite Technique/RST approach [Tramutoli 1998;2005;) already suitable for inclusion in a t-DASH system.…”

“…Main characteristics of the correlation test for this parameter are: a) space window ranging from 200 to 365 km, M>3,5, time window 60 days before and after the event; c) significant correlation found in the 200km/30 days space/time window (but not along all the directions). Fidani et al [2020] on the base of 11 years of electron bursts (30-100 keV) data obtained from NOAA 15 satellite, evaluate the correlation with EQs (M>6) occurred in the Indonesia and Philippines regions. In two cases (over 63) anomalous EBs are reported in a very short (4-2 hours) time window before EQ's occurrence.…”