Probability Distributions for Effective Permeability of Potentially Leaking Wells at CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; Sequestration Sites

Carey, J. William

doi:10.2172/1438142

Cited by 12 publications

(8 citation statements)

References 9 publications

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“…Note that the value of 4.935 × 10 −12 m 2 was taken from Huerta, 50 assuming the well is an old well built in 1950s and has poor well completion. This value is also consistent with well permeability values reported in Carey, 51 which assigns permeability higher than 10 −12 m 2 to wells with significant leakage. Figure 4 shows the vertical cross-section CO 2 saturation profiles at different time points generated by TOUGH2 simulations.…”

Section: Methodssupporting

confidence: 91%

Application of a new reduced‐complexity assessment tool to estimate CO₂ and brine leakage from reservoir and above‐zone monitoring interval (AZMI) through an abandoned well under geologic carbon storage conditions

et al. 2018

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This study employs a combination of detailed simulations and reduced‐complexity models in the Well Leakage Analysis Tool (WLAT), developed by the National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP), US Department of Energy, to investigate how the rates of CO2 and brine leakage through an abandoned well under geologic CO2 storage conditions are affected by various factors. The factors considered in this study include depth of well penetration into the storage system, location relative to the point of injection, and effective permeability of the abandoned well. Location is the primary factor used to identify high‐ and low‐risk abandoned wells. For the typical CO2 injection scenario considered in this study, the potential impact of CO2 and brine leakage through an abandoned well is very low if the abandoned well is 6.2 km or further away from the CO2 injector. Due to the buoyancy of CO2 relative to formation brine, wells intersecting (i.e., accepting flow from) the top of the above‐zone monitoring interval (AZMI), which is the interval immediately above the seal, have a higher chance to become a pathway for CO2 than wells intersecting the bottom of the AZMI. If the permeability of an abandoned well is 10−14 m2 or less, the risk of CO2 and brine leakage through the well becomes very low. Due to the combined effect of pressure increase and buoyancy, the CO2 leakage rate is higher than brine leakage rate within the CO2 plume extent. Specific values reported in this study are site‐specific results and cannot be regarded as general findings. © 2018 Society of Chemical Industry and John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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Section: Methodssupporting

confidence: 91%

Application of a new reduced‐complexity assessment tool to estimate CO₂ and brine leakage from reservoir and above‐zone monitoring interval (AZMI) through an abandoned well under geologic carbon storage conditions

et al. 2018

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“…The range of well permeabilities assumed (Table 2, from 9 ) were relatively high, as compared to values by Carey. 32 Fifty STOMP reservoir simulations were randomly sampled and each selected simulation was used as the basis to run 200 NRAP-Open-IAM simulations, resulting in 10 000 (= 50 × 200) realizations. Leakage through wells and into the four overlying aquifer layers considered uncertainty in well permeability and the permeability of the four aquifer layers, with uncertain parameter values generated by Latin hypercube sampling.…”

Section: Methods and Supporting Simulations Leakage Simulationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluating probability of containment effectiveness at a GCS site using integrated assessment modeling approach with Bayesian decision network

et al. 2021

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Improved scientific and engineering understanding of the behavior of geologic CO 2 storage together with established regulatory framework and incentive structures raise the prospects for accelerated, large-scale deployment of this greenhouse gas emissions reduction approach. Incentive structures call for the establishment of appropriate verification and accounting approaches to support claims of the integrity of a geologic storage complex and to justify taking credit for long-term storage. In this study, we present a framework for assessing the probability of containment effectiveness over the lifetime of a geologic carbon storage site (e.g., after 70 years of injection and postinjection site performance) using forward stochastic model realizations based on site characterization data and using a monitoring-informed Bayesian network based on hypothetical detectability from surface seismic surveys over the site injection and post-injection phases. The National Risk Assessment Partnership's open-source Integrated Assessment Model (NRAP-Open-IAM) was utilized to develop an ensemble of 10,000 a priori stochastic forecasts of CO 2 containment. Those simulations were used to train the Bayesian network model to estimate the prior probabilities of the CO 2 leakage mass into overlying, monitorable aquifers considering the uncertainties in the reservoir properties, permeability of potentially leaky wells and the overlying aquifers. The conditional probabilities in the Bayesian network were either learned from the NRAP-Open-IAM simulations or derived from the predefined detection thresholds for the monitoring method. Observations obtained from monitoring, over time during the site operation phases were then used to generate updated posterior probabilities of containment (and any loss from containment) in the Bayesian network by propagating the prior probabilities through the conditional

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“…Published ranges for the effective permeability of a leaky wellbore have included an 'open wellbore' with an effective permeability as high as 10 −5 m 2 to values more representative of leakage through a wellbore annulus of 10 −10 to 10 −12 m 2 . [23][24][25] Carey 26 provides probability distributions for the effective permeability of potentially leaking wells at CO 2 storage sites and estimated a wide range from 10 −10 to 10 −20 m 2 . As previously discussed, a site-specific risk assessment would include an assessment of well failure modes, their likelihood over the performance period, and the likely permeability of each of these failure mechanisms.…”

Section: Hypothetical Leaky Wellbore Parametersmentioning

confidence: 99%

Risk‐based area of review estimation in overpressured reservoirs to support injection well storage facility permit requirements for CO₂storage projects

et al. 2021

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This paper presents a workflow for delineating a risk-based area of review (AOR) to support a US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Class VI permit for a carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) storage project. The approach combines semianalytical solutions for estimating formation fluid leakage through a hypothetical leaky wellbore with the results of physics-based numerical reservoir simulations. The workflow is demonstrated using a case study for a hypothetical 180,000-metric-ton-per-year storage project located in the Plains CO 2 Reduction (PCOR) Partnership region, which includes all or part of 10 states in the United States and four Canadian provinces. Under the scenario where the leaky wellbore is open to a saline aquifer (thief zone) between the overlying seal (cap rock) and the underground sources of drinking water (USDW), the risk-based AOR is no larger than the areal extent of the CO 2 plume in the storage reservoir because the pressure buildup in the storage reservoir beyond the CO 2 plume is insufficient to drive formation fluids up a hypothetical leaky wellbore into the USDW. However, even under the conservative assumption that the leaky wellbore is not open to a thief zone, the incremental leakage beyond the areal extent of the CO 2 plume is less than 400 m 3 over 20 years. The approach outlined in this paper is designed to be protective of USDWs and comply with the Safe Drinking Water Act requirements and provisions for the EPA Class VI Underground Injection Control (UIC) Program (Class VI Rule) and North Dakota Administrative Code Chapter 43-05-01.

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Probability Distributions for Effective Permeability of Potentially Leaking Wells at CO<sub>2</sub> Sequestration Sites

Cited by 12 publications

References 9 publications

Application of a new reduced‐complexity assessment tool to estimate CO₂ and brine leakage from reservoir and above‐zone monitoring interval (AZMI) through an abandoned well under geologic carbon storage conditions

Application of a new reduced‐complexity assessment tool to estimate CO₂ and brine leakage from reservoir and above‐zone monitoring interval (AZMI) through an abandoned well under geologic carbon storage conditions

Evaluating probability of containment effectiveness at a GCS site using integrated assessment modeling approach with Bayesian decision network

Risk‐based area of review estimation in overpressured reservoirs to support injection well storage facility permit requirements for CO₂storage projects

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Probability Distributions for Effective Permeability of Potentially Leaking Wells at CO<sub>2</sub> Sequestration Sites

Cited by 12 publications

References 9 publications

Application of a new reduced‐complexity assessment tool to estimate CO2 and brine leakage from reservoir and above‐zone monitoring interval (AZMI) through an abandoned well under geologic carbon storage conditions

Application of a new reduced‐complexity assessment tool to estimate CO2 and brine leakage from reservoir and above‐zone monitoring interval (AZMI) through an abandoned well under geologic carbon storage conditions

Evaluating probability of containment effectiveness at a GCS site using integrated assessment modeling approach with Bayesian decision network

Risk‐based area of review estimation in overpressured reservoirs to support injection well storage facility permit requirements for CO2storage projects

Contact Info

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About

Application of a new reduced‐complexity assessment tool to estimate CO₂ and brine leakage from reservoir and above‐zone monitoring interval (AZMI) through an abandoned well under geologic carbon storage conditions

Application of a new reduced‐complexity assessment tool to estimate CO₂ and brine leakage from reservoir and above‐zone monitoring interval (AZMI) through an abandoned well under geologic carbon storage conditions

Risk‐based area of review estimation in overpressured reservoirs to support injection well storage facility permit requirements for CO₂storage projects