Probability of emerald ash borer impact for Canadian cities and North America: a mechanistic model

Cuddington, Kim; Sobek-Swant, Stephanie; Crosthwaite, Jill C.; Lyons, D. Barry; Sinclair, Brent J.

doi:10.1007/s10530-018-1725-0

Cited by 18 publications

(23 citation statements)

References 41 publications

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“…For EAB, we implemented the logistic regression procedure of Cuddington et al (2018) to model the temperature dose-response relationship for overwintering prepupae (Fig. 1B).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…However, our model does take into account the buffering effects of the tree on temperature. Cuddington et al (2018) provide both nonlinear and linear submodels that predict under-bark temperature given air temperature (their fig. 3) and that also incorporate a random effect for "city".…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…(A) Relationship between minimum annual air temperature and minimum annual under-bark temperature for ash trees fit by linear (solid lines) and nonlinear (broken lines) models (see eqs. 2 and 3) using parameters derived by fitting models to data (black) and using parameters given in Cuddington et al (2018) (gray); black circles show data digitized from Cuddington et al (2018, fig. 3).…”

Section: The Winter Of 2018 -2019 In Contextmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…(B) Modelled temperature dose response for emerald ash borer according to a logistic regression (solid line; eq. 1) fit to the data (grey circles) of Crosthwaite et al (2011), as per Cuddington et al (2018); black circles show cumulative mortality.…”

Section: The Winter Of 2018 -2019 In Contextmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Computer models have been developed to describe the detailed effects of temperature on cold acclimation and freezing mortality of both species (EAB: Cuddington et al 2018;MPB: Régnière and Bentz 2007). In this paper, we specifically discuss the consequences of the cold winter of 2018-2019 on these two invaders by employing the published models to examine the likely large-scale effects of daily temperature fluctuations on overwintering survival of both EAB and MPB.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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The predicted effect of the polar vortex of 2019 on winter survival of emerald ash borer and mountain pine beetle

2019

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We use simulation models of the winter biology of two forest insectsemerald ash borer (Agrilus planipennis Fairmaire, 1888) and mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins, 1902) -to illustrate the anticipated effect of the polar vortex of the winter of 2019 on overwintering survival. Cold spells in late January and early and mid-February were cool enough that relatively high levels of mortality of both species may be expected in many parts of northern Canada. However, the high mortality response is not ubiquitous, and neither is it particularly severe compared with winter weather patterns from earlier decades. Forest insect pest managers will be required to carry on their usual work of population assessment and response. As Earth's climate continues to warm, overwintering survival should, on average, increase in both species. However, the common occurrence of a split polar vortex associated with increasingly meridional jet stream flows should bring the odd winter of heavy mortality.Résumé : Nous avons utilisé des modèles de simulation de la biologie hivernale de deux insectes forestiersl'agrile du frêne (Agrilus planipennis Fairmaire, 1888) et le dendroctone du pin ponderosa (Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins, 1902) -pour illustrer les effets anticipés du vortex polaire de 2019 sur la survie hiémale. Les vagues de froid qui sont survenues à la fin janvier ainsi qu'au début et à la mi-février ont été suffisamment intenses pour qu'on puisse s'attendre à des taux de mortalité relativement élevés chez les deux espèces dans plusieurs régions du nord du Canada. Cependant, la mortalité élevée n'est pas une réponse généralisée ni particulièrement sévère comparativement à l'allure du climat hivernal des décennies précédentes. Les gestionnaires des insectes forestiers nuisibles devront poursuivre leur travail habituel concernant l'évaluation et la réaction des populations. La survie hiémale devrait en moyenne augmenter chez les deux espèces à mesure que le climat de la terre continue de se réchauffer. Cependant, l'occurrence fréquente d'un vortex polaire divisé associé à une circulation de plus en plus méridionale du courant jet devrait produire des hivers inhabituels accompagnés d'une forte mortalité. [Traduit par la Rédaction] Mots-clés : écophysiologie des insectes, tolérance au froid, mortalité hivernale, modélisation prédictive.

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“…For EAB, we implemented the logistic regression procedure of Cuddington et al (2018) to model the temperature dose-response relationship for overwintering prepupae (Fig. 1B).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%