Probability of Middle-Aged Men Developing Coronary Heart Disease in Five Years

Abstract

Characteristics of 11,132 men aged 40-59 years and free from coronary heart disease (CHD) at entry were related to follow-up experience, using multivariate analysis. In 5 years among 2,404 U. S. railroad men and 8,728 European men there were 615 cases of CHD, 214 of whom died from CHD or suffered definite nonfatal infarction. With five entry characteristics (age, systolic blood pressure, serum cholesterol, smoking habit, and body mass index), multiple logistic solutions for Europeans and Americans, separately, gave estimates of the individual probability of CHD. Classified by deciled scores for these probabilities, the expected and observed CHD cases were highly correlated (r = 0.930-0.981). Predictions based on European data applied to Americans, and vice versa, gave similar high correlations but American incidence was excessive compared with European experience. Application of the analysis coefficients obtained from data in Europe and in the U. S. railroad to 6,221 other U. S. men 40-59 years of age, CHD-free at entry, gave good prediction of relative risk (r = 0.94) for observed versus predicted cases in deciles of risk score; however, the actual numbers of cases were underpredicted. From single measurements of a few characteristics the multiple logistic solution usefully estimates the relative risk of CHD for individuals. Age, systolic pressure, and serum cholesterol are universally powerful predictors of risk. Variables not measured in this study or not yet identified contribute to the risk of CHD among American men.

Minor components of olive oil facilitate the triglyceride clearance from postprandial lipoproteins in a polarity-dependent manner in healthy men

“…The Mediterranean diet, characterized by a high consumption of monounsaturated fatty acids (MUFA), has been proposed as a healthy dietary standard because it is associated with a low rate of cardiovascular mortality [6]. However, we have demonstrated that not all MUFA-rich oils exert the same effects on the magnitude and duration of postprandial triglyceridemia [7].…”

Association of midlife obesity and cardiovascular risk with old age frailty: a 26-year follow-up of initially healthy men

“…In 1974, the composite risk score for coronary artery disease (CAD) was calculated according to the contemporary Keys' risk equation. 20 It takes into account age, systolic blood pressure, cholesterol, smoking and BMI, and gives the 5-year risk (%) of CAD among European men aged 40-59 years. The risk could not be assessed according to the Framingham equation because serum high-density lipoprotein cholesterol was not available.…”

Leisure-time physical activity, cardiovascular risk factors and mortality during a 34-year follow-up in men

“…In 1974 the men were also asked questions on how they rated their present health and physical fitness on a 5-step scale ("very good", "good", "fair", "poor", "very poor"). To reflect composite risk of coronary artery disease, the Keys' risk score [6] including age, BMI, smoking, cholesterol and systolic blood pressure was calculated in 1974.…”