Probability reasoning in judicial fact-finding

Hunt, Ian

doi:10.1177/1365712719875753

Cited by 8 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 64 publications

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“…Some research in the law literature addressed a related issue. Hunt and Mostyn (2020) found that probabilistic reasoning is valid and useful in factfinding. However, other studies suggested that the court actions or sentencings (i.e., final actions) are determined in a manner that is inconsistent with probabilities of the relevant events (Lindley, 1991;Meier, 2014).…”

Section: Experimental Results: Specific State Judgmentsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…There has been little research in accounting/auditing literature dealing with how auditors' probability judgment bias affects the accuracy of their state judgments. Some studies in the law literature (e.g., Hunt & Mostyn, 2020;Meier, 2014) investigated how the probability judgments of events affect court sentencings (i.e., state judgments). Drawing on this literature, our study examines the accuracy rate of state judgments by experts making collective judgments.…”

Section: Specific Research Issuesmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Experts’ Collective Judgments and Learning in Analytical Review

2022

AJM

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Accurate estimation of financial information has become one of the most critical issues in today's auditing environment. This study extends the literature by investigating how auditors' collective probability and state judgments in the estimation process are affected by the saliency of the prior probability of relevant events. Consistent with current audit practice, this study performed investigations based on collective judgments by expert groups. The results indicate that expert audit teams make more accurate judgments regarding account default and learn more significantly from feedback in the more salient prior probability condition. We also found that while audit teams are somewhat biased in probability judgments, their state judgments are highly accurate. Overall, they make judgments more normatively than individual experts.

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Section: Experimental Results: Specific State Judgmentsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Specific Research Issuesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Experts’ Collective Judgments and Learning in Analytical Review

2022

AJM

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“…Thus, based on the research of certain scientists (Hunt and Mostyn, 2020;Marques Martins, 2020;Tuzet, 2020), one can conclude that generic (general) signs of legal facts, as the grounds for the emergence of the social security legal relations include:…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Theoretical substantiation of the model of borrowing rights-terminating facts

Kostruba

Hyliaka²

2021

SSRN Journal

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The relevance of the research is determined by the fact that it is necessary to differentiate the possibility of applying rights-terminating facts not only in general constructs of the civil branch of legislation but also in a number of private practices of sub-industries regulating general socio-economic relations. Such differentiation can contribute to the sustainable development of the civil sector of legislation. The aim of the article was to show new constructions in connection with the judicial system and the system of socio-economic forecasting. The main importance of legal consists in the fact that they can be applied in general in the category of civil law and at the same time their role as regulators of the civil branch of legislation is minimized or does not work at all. In this regard, for the termination of legal relations, mainly general constructs of juridical facts without formalization for industry values are used. Such constructions contribute to equality between members of society, which in turn contributes to its development and well-being. It is found that the main task of the formation of the practice of applying rights-terminating facts is to determine the limits of liability of industry-specific legislation. The practical significance of the research is determined by the fact that for the first time the aspects of sectoral planning of the system of application of rights-terminating facts are revealed. The developed model can be applied both in the process of adjudication and in the process of socio-economic development programmers. The novelty of the research is determined by the fact that in the literature, aspects of the formation of industrial legislative grounds for the application of local juridical facts are shown for the first time.

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“…I call this 'subjectivity-as-unfounded-belief'. As said, most Bayesians presume that the relevant probabilities are degrees of belief (e.g., Kaplan, 1967;Cullison, 1969;Finkelstein & Fairley, 1970;Robertson & Vignaux, 1993;Bird, 2017;Schweizer, 2019;Hunt & Mostyn, 2020). This is subjectivity-as-belief.…”

Section: The Worries Of Subjective and Evidential Probabilitymentioning

confidence: 99%

(Im)probable stories

Jellema¹

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but also being not-quite-a-student was quite demotivating (especially when combined with COVID lockdowns). So, while I am satisfied with the end-result, my PhD experience was something of a mixed bag. However, one thing that I do not have mixed feelings about is the group of people who helped me along the way.The following persons not only helped make this thesis better, without their aid I would likely not have finished it in the first place.I would first and foremost like to thank my promotors Henry Prakken and Anne Ruth Mackor. Before I began this PhD, I already knew what you were both like as supervisors as you had supervised my master's thesis. After I was done with that thesis, I sent you an email in which I expressed my gratitude for your kind and constructive supervision. I observed that not everyone is as lucky with their supervisors (I'd heard some horror stories). I also made a prediction: that we would continue to get along well during my PhD. I am happy to say that this was a successful prediction and I stand by the words I wrote in that email. I am grateful for all the time that you devoted to reading my work carefully and critically over these past years. Admittedly, it was not always easy to feel this gratitude when I received yet another round of extensive comments on my work. However, if not for all your help, I wouldn't be nearly as satisfied with the end result and it made me a better academic. But what I am perhaps most thankful for is that I could always come to you with any problems I had, whether they were professional or personal, in the knowledge that you would offer me understanding, kind words, and good advice.A close third in the list of people that I should absolutely not forget to thank is Pauline Westerman. Pauline, you had very little impact on what is written in this thesis. When I showed you one of my first chapters, you refused to read it, 9 exclaiming with disgust that there was a formula on the second page. Nonetheless, you contributed to the successful completion of my PhD in countless other ways.Your first contribution was convincing me to apply for the Research Master of Law, which turned out to be a great choice. After that, you continued to be a mentor to me, and to many of my fellow PhDs as the director of the Graduate School of Law (and these days as the 'PhD (grand)mother'). You also helped me (and the other PhDs) immensely by organizing online meetings during the pandemic, where we talked about hobbies and other happy things. Those meetings were bright spots during a dull and depressing time. Finally I want to thank you very much for painting the wonderful picture on the cover of this book.I would also like to express my gratitude to the members of my reading committee: Amalia Amaya, Christian Dahlman and Bart Verheij. Thank you for taking the time to read this thesis, for your helpful feedback and for allowing me to defend it.Speaking of the defense, I am very happy that Pepa Mellema and Stefan Sleeuw agreed to be my paranymphs. Historically, paranymphs acted as bac...

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Probability reasoning in judicial fact-finding

Cited by 8 publications

References 64 publications

Experts’ Collective Judgments and Learning in Analytical Review

Experts’ Collective Judgments and Learning in Analytical Review

Theoretical substantiation of the model of borrowing rights-terminating facts

(Im)probable stories

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