Probing the variations in the timing of the Sun’s polar magnetic field reversals through observations and surface flux transport simulations

Golubeva, E. M.; Biswas, Akash; Khlystova, A. I.; Kumar, Pawan; Karak, Bidya Binay

doi:10.1093/mnras/stad2254

Cited by 4 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 63 publications

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“…As we progress further in time, differences in the polar field evolution across realizations become more apparent, and the polar field evolution of our simulations continues to diverge. This is confirmation that the chaotic nature of flux emergence makes the task of predicting polar field evolution during solar maximum for more than a few years into the future a challenging task (Golubeva et al 2023). However, as we near the polarity reversal, we can expect less uncertainty in the predictions.…”

Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 55%

“…The amplitude of the polar field at the beginning of the solar cycle acts as the seed field for the upcoming cycle and is one of the best proxies for predicting the strength of following solar cycle (Svalgaard et al 2005;Hathaway 2010;Muñoz-Jaramillo et al 2012;Svalgaard & Kamide 2013;Upton & Hathaway 2023). The reversal of the polar field occurs close to cycle maximum (Babcock 1959), beginning the creation of the seed field for the upcoming cycle (Golubeva et al 2023).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Predicting the Timing of the Solar Cycle 25 Polar Field Reversal

Jha,

Upton

2024

ApJL

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The process of the Sun’s polar field cancellation reversal commences with the emergence of new cycle Hale’s polarity active regions. Once the Sun undergoes polarity reversal, typically occurring near the peak of solar activity, it begins the process of accumulating the seed field for the forthcoming solar cycle. In recent years, the advective flux transport (AFT) model has proven highly effective in forecasting the progression of polar fields by leveraging observations of surface flows and magnetic flux emergence. In this study, we make use of the predictive capability of the AFT model to simulate the evolution of the polar fields and estimate the timing of the Solar Cycle 25 polarity reversal in both hemispheres of the Sun. We use the statistical properties of active regions along with Solar Cycle 13, which closely resembles the current solar cycle (Cycle 25), to generate synthetic active regions in order to simulate future magnetic flux emergence in AFT to predict the evolution of the polar field. Based on our simulations, we anticipate that the northern hemisphere of the Sun will undergo a polarity reversal between 2024 June and November, with the center of our distribution at 2024 August. In the southern hemisphere, we anticipate a polarity reversal between 2024 November and 2025 July, centered around 2025 February. Additionally, assuming that the reversal of the axial dipole moment coincides with the peak of the solar cycle, our findings indicate that Cycle 25 is expected to peak in 2024 (likely between 2024 April and August).

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Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 55%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Predicting the Timing of the Solar Cycle 25 Polar Field Reversal

Jha,

Upton

2024

ApJL

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Exploring the reliability of polar field rise rate as a precursor for an early prediction of solar cycle

Biswas,

Karak,

Kumar

2023

Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society

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The prediction of the strength of an upcoming solar cycle has been a long-standing challenge in the field of solar physics. The inherent stochastic nature of the underlying solar dynamo makes the strength of the solar cycle vary in a wide range. Till now, the polar precursor methods and the dynamo simulations, that uses the strength of the polar field at the cycle minimum to predict the strength of the following cycle has gained reasonable consensus by providing convergence in the predictions for solar cycles 24 and 25. Recently, it has been shown that just by using the observed correlation of the polar field rise rate with the peak of the polar field at the cycle minimum and the amplitude of the following cycle, a reliable prediction can be made much earlier than the cycle minimum. In this work, we perform surface flux transport (SFT) simulations to explore the robustness of this correlation against the stochastic fluctuations of BMR tilt properties including anti-Joy and anti-Hale type anomalous BMRs, and against the variation of meridional flow speed. We find that the observed correlation is a robust feature of the solar cycles and thus it can be utilized for a reliable prediction of solar cycle much earlier than the cycle minimum—the usual landmark of the solar cycle prediction.

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Variabilities in the polar field and solar cycle due to irregular properties of bipolar magnetic regions

Kumar,

Karak,

Sreedevi

2024

Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society

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Decay and dispersal of the tilted Bipolar Magnetic Regions (BMRs) on the solar surface are observed to produce the large-scale poloidal field, which acts as the seed for the toroidal field and, thus, the next sunspot cycle. However, various properties of BMR, namely, the tilt, time delay between successive emergences, location, and flux, all have irregular variations. Previous studies show that these variations can lead to changes in the polar field. In this study, we first demonstrate that our 3D kinematic dynamo model, STABLE, reproduces the robust feature of the surface flux transport (SFT) model, namely the variation of the generated dipole moment with the latitude of the BMR position. Using STABLE in both SFT and dynamo modes, we perform simulations by varying the individual properties of BMR and keeping their distributions the same in all the cycles as inspired by the observations. We find that randomness due to the distribution in either the time delay or the BMR latitude produces negligible variation in the polar field and the solar cycle. However, randomness due to BMR flux distribution produces substantial effects, while the scatter in the tilt around Joy’s law produces the largest variation. Our comparative analyses suggest that the scatter of BMR tilt around Joy’s law is the major cause of variation in the solar cycle. Furthermore, our simulations also show that the magnetic field-dependent time delay of BMR emergence produces more realistic features of the magnetic cycle, consistent with observation.

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Probing the variations in the timing of the Sun’s polar magnetic field reversals through observations and surface flux transport simulations

Cited by 4 publications

References 63 publications

Predicting the Timing of the Solar Cycle 25 Polar Field Reversal

Predicting the Timing of the Solar Cycle 25 Polar Field Reversal

Exploring the reliability of polar field rise rate as a precursor for an early prediction of solar cycle

Variabilities in the polar field and solar cycle due to irregular properties of bipolar magnetic regions

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