Procesos de optimización y conservación de usos del suelo por procesos espaciales de conurbación entre ciudad metropolitana y localidades rurales, caso de estudio periferia sur de Quito, Aloag y Machachi – Ecuador

Abstract

The expansive, uncontrolled and accelerated growth of cities is a phenomenon that leads to an increasing incompatibility of land uses in the areas of influence it affects; with more serious effects in areas that are ecologically vulnerable and strategic for the production on which other productive sectors and human consumption depend. This thesis, which focuses on the conservation of forest and paramo use, addresses the effects that occur on surrounding land uses produced by the phenomenon of urban conurbation between the cities of Quito and the towns of Alóag and Machachi in the well-known Machachi Valley, which is called the last ecological corridor of Ecuador and also has a biogeographical and ecological patent. The analysis is performed by three complementary spatial methods: (1) Multitemporal geostatistical modeling of land-use change dynamics by Cellular Automata (CA) to generate future scenarios, taking into account predictor variables driving change (transitions) and past evidence; (2) Evaluation of expert criteria to determine areas suitable for urban use through the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP); and (3) assignment of priority forest and wasteland conservation areas based on the costs (efforts) of conservation associated with land use and land cover, their productive activities, and the desired sustainable combination of forest, urban, and productive uses calculated by applying the Simulated Annealing (SA) algorithm. The results are presented as a geographical coverage reflecting the comprehensive panorama of simulations and computed analysis, but also a comparison of the results of the 3 methods applied. Future land use scenarios calculated using AC are calculated for the next 20 years, thus obtaining the possible evolution of land uses. The multi-criteria evaluation (AHP) presents geographical results that validate, clarify and complement the most suitable areas for urban use and forestry uses. The results of the conservation analysis show geographically the prioritization of areas to be conserved that represent the lowest costs (efforts). In a comprehensive analysis phase, all products are contrasted to determine, mainly whether the urban, forest and paramo uses are in accordance with the other uses and the experts' criteria, i.e. to quantify the violation in the cases raised; but also to dimension the areas to be conserved to ensure the sustainability of land use. Comprehensive analyzes are calculated in a multi-temporal way to estimate the impact of short or medium-term measures. From the analyses, it is evident that the region requiring conservation is equivalent to 50% of the study area. Additionally, over the next 20 years, there will be a 17 km2 decrease in the area used for forest and paramo.