In the mechanical cutting industry, trial production is used for predicting and evaluating the quality of product processes before batch production, and it can be expressed through the qualification rate. However, it cannot objectively and comprehensively evaluate the quality of product processes. This study optimizes the analysis of outliers and stability in mathematical statistics to better apply it in the mechanical cutting industry; then, it combines them with process capability analysis. Simultaneously, considering the non-normal distribution of process parameters, a batch production-prediction model is proposed. The diameter, roundness, and roughness of structural common samples are verified. The results show that after the diameter, roundness, and roughness stabilize, the process performance indices are 2.5157, 3.8883, and 3.5878, respectively, adhering to the standards for batch production. For other mechanical parts in the mechanical cutting industry, the model proposed in this paper can be used to quickly and accurately predict and evaluate batch production.