Process Simulation Applied to the Prediction of the Impact of Corn Incorporation as Raw Material on the Brazilian Ethanol Market

Abstract

Sugarcane is currently the primary raw material for ethanol production in Brazil. However, in recent years, corn has become an exportable commodity in the country, and many projects have emerged for ethanol production from this feedstock. The assessment of the market demand for ethanol in Brazil in the coming years indicates a deficit in domestic production. Thus, strategic planning is essential to guide future industry investments and ensures competitiveness and development in this segment. In this work, process simulation is used to compare sugarcane and corn ethanol production technologies in terms of their material and energy demands, and to measure the potential impact of the corn entrance in the current Brazilian market. It was shown that ethanol from corn can have a cost 5% lower than 1G ethanol and 17% lower than 1G2G ethanol from sugarcane. If 50% of the additional demand for ethanol is supplied from corn, a potential reduction of up to 5% can be expected in the biofuel average price, depending on the corn price. One corn ethanol plant could supply almost the same amount of biofuel than two or three sugarcane ethanol plants, and adaption of existing mills to flex processing plants is indicated as a viable alternative.