Product Proliferation, Population, and Economic Growth

Bucci, Alberto

doi:10.1086/680861

Cited by 35 publications

(38 citation statements)

References 33 publications

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“…The population growth variable shows distinct outcomes depending on countries' economic development group: no statistically significant impact for DC, negative and significant impact for EE and positive and significant impact for EE. It seems that for these latter countries, a rapid population growth is perverse (Bucci, 2015): dilutes the per capita capital stock (the capital shallowing effect); results in a high youth dependency ratio, which reduces the saving rate (the age dependency effect); and/or diverts resources away from more productive, growth-oriented uses (the investment diversion effect). In contrast, for the LDC a fast growing population can induce more intense technological advancements, which stimulate economic growth in the long run (Kremer, 1993).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Impact of Ageing and the Speed of Ageing on the Economic Growth of Least Developed, Emerging and Developed Countries, 1990–2013

Teixeira

Nagarajan

Silva

2016

Review Development Economics

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Studies relating ageing and countries’ economic performance address mostly developed economies. However, extant studies demonstrate that less developed countries (LDC) and emerging economies (EE) are reaching the transition process faster than those from developed regions, which renders the speed of ageing, besides ageing, a critical variable to explore in this context. Comparing system dynamic panel data estimations for 40 LDC, 19 EE and 28 developed countries (DC), between 1990 and 2013, we uncovered that ageing is detrimental to countries’ economic growth, with noticeable nuances depending on countries’ development level. The current level of ageing significantly and negatively impacts on DC's growth but not on that of LDC or EE. For these latter groups, the most relevant issue is the speed of ageing. The current annual growth of old age dependency ratio significantly diminishes EE's growth prospects whereas the lagged annual growth of the ageing index and the old age dependency ratio significantly curtails LDC's growth. Such results emphasize the need for urgent public policies that might mitigate the imbalance in LDCs’ age structure before the speed of ageing leads LDCs to become even much poorer.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Impact of Ageing and the Speed of Ageing on the Economic Growth of Least Developed, Emerging and Developed Countries, 1990–2013

Teixeira

Nagarajan

Silva

2016

Review Development Economics

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“…where L A t is the aggregate amount of labor allocated to R&D activities, L t is a scale variable (measure of market dimension) proportional to the size of total labor force in the economy, 7 Complexity costs are considered alternatively in the final good production such as in Bucci (2015) and Bucci et al (2017). Some other articles consider production-complexity related benefits (i.e., as a growth enhancing feature) in the economy (e.g., Hidalgo andHausman, 2009, andAfonso andMagalhães, 2017).…”

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confidence: 99%

Endogenous growth and entropy

Sequeira

Gil

Afonso

2018

Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization

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This paper offers novel insights regarding the role of complexity in both the transitional and the long-run dynamics of the economy. We devise an endogenous growth model using the concept of entropy as a state-dependent complexity effect. This allows us to gradually diminish scale effects as the economy develops along the transitional dynamics, which conciliates evidence on the existence of scale effects in history with evidence of no or reduced scale effects in today's economies. We show that empirical evidence supports entropy as a "first principle" operator of the complexity effect.The model features endogenous growth, with null or small (positive or negative) scale effects, or stagnation, in the long run. These different long-run possibilities have also policy implications. Then, we show that the model can replicate well the take-off after the industrial revolution and the productivity slowdown in the second half of the XX th century. Future scenarios based on in-sample calibration are discussed, and may help to explain (part of) the growth crises affecting the current generation.Keywords: endogenous economic growth, complexity effects, entropy.JEL Classification: O10, O30, O40, E22 * Previous versions of this paper circulated under the title "Growth without scale effects due to entropy". We thank the helpful comments on earlier versions from Jaime Alonso, Margarida Duarte, Yuichi Furukawa, Reyer Gerlagh, Jakub Growiek, Harry Huizinga, Pietro Peretto, Xavier Raurich, John Seater, Sjak Smulders, and participants in the 10 th Portuguese Economic Journal Conference (Univ. Coimbra

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“…Equation (14) says that at equilibrium total supply (the RHS) and total demand (the LHS) of labor must be equal. In the model, labor is a homogeneous factor-input, i.e.…”

Section: The Labor Marketmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Instead, for γ y to be positive, Φ needs to be strictly greater than zero, which implies that, in principle, we would restrict our attention to the case where 0 < β < m−1 m < 1. In order to explain the economic rationale behind this condition, notice that an increase in the markup leads to a decrease in the elasticity of substitution 14 In the on-line Appendix A (not intended for publication), we also compute the BGP allocations of labor across the final output, intermediate and research sectors and check for the respect of the transversality condition. 15 While m and β do not affect γ N in the BGP equilibrium, they still impact: (i) on the market value of any generic idea (V N , equation (9)), through the instantaneous profit of intermediate firms (π i , equation 6); (ii) on the wage (w N , equation (8)) accruing to one unit of research labor-input, through V N .…”

Section: Proof See On-line Appendix Amentioning

confidence: 99%

“…15 While m and β do not affect γ N in the BGP equilibrium, they still impact: (i) on the market value of any generic idea (V N , equation (9)), through the instantaneous profit of intermediate firms (π i , equation 6); (ii) on the wage (w N , equation (8)) accruing to one unit of research labor-input, through V N . As a consequence, m and β are able to influence the allocation, through wage-equalization, of the available labor-input across sectors (see equations (14) and (15)). between any pair of varieties of differentiated intermediate inputs and, therefore, to weaker product market competition across capital-goods producers.…”

Section: Proof See On-line Appendix Amentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Variety, Competition, and Population in Economic Growth: Theory and Empirics

Bucci¹,

Carbonari²,

Trovato³

2019

Macroecon. Dynam.

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We provide aggregate macroeconomic evidence on how, in the long-run, a diverse degree of complexity in production may affect not only the rate of economic growth, but also the correlation between the latter, population growth and the monopolistic (intermediate) markups. For a sample of OECD countries, we find that the impact of population change on economic growth is slightly positive. According to our theoretical model, this implies that the losses due to more complexity in production are lower than the corresponding specialization gains. Using a Finite Mixture Model, we also classify the countries in the sample and verify for each cluster the impact that the population growth rate and the intermediate sector's markups exert on the 5-year average real GDP growth rate.

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Product Proliferation, Population, and Economic Growth

Cited by 35 publications

References 33 publications

The Impact of Ageing and the Speed of Ageing on the Economic Growth of Least Developed, Emerging and Developed Countries, 1990–2013

The Impact of Ageing and the Speed of Ageing on the Economic Growth of Least Developed, Emerging and Developed Countries, 1990–2013

Endogenous growth and entropy

Variety, Competition, and Population in Economic Growth: Theory and Empirics

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