Productivity growth and convergence in crop, ruminant, and nonruminant production: measurement and forecasts

Abstract

There is considerable interest in projections of future productivity growth in agriculture. Whether one is interested in the outlook for global commodity markets, future patterns of international trade, or the interactions between land use, deforestation and ecological diversity, the rate of productivity growth in agriculture is an essential input. Yet solid projections for this variable have proven elusive -particularly on a global basis. This is due, in no small part, to the difficulty in measuring historical productivity growth. The purpose of this paper is to report the latest time series evidence on total factor productivity growth for crops, ruminants and non-ruminant livestock, on a global basis. We then follow with tests for convergence amongst regions, providing forecasts for farm productivity growth to the year 2040. The results suggest that most regions in the sample are likely to experience larger productivity gains in livestock than in crops. Within livestock, the nonruminant sector is expected to continue to be more dynamic than the ruminant sector. Given the rapid rates of productivity growth observed recently, non-ruminant and crop productivity in developing countries may be converging to the productivity levels of developed countries. For ruminants, the results show that productivity levels may be diverging between developed and developing countries.JEL Classification: D24, O13, O47, Q10

Agricultural Impact of Climate Change: A General Equilibrium Analysis with Special Reference to Southeast Asia

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El control de las emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero en España: costes para los sectores agrarios

“…A final important issue relates to the sensitivity of technological improvements in agriculture to climate change and policy. 22 In this study, our ruminant, nonruminant and crop total factor productivity (TFP) estimates are taken from Ludena et al (2006) who employ FAOSTAT time series data for 116 countries to generate forecasts up to 2040. Whilst some deceleration in TFP is included representing an 'implicit' account of climate change on yields, no 'explicit' climate change factors are incorporated into their analysis.…”

Economic Growth, Technological Change, and the Patterns of Food and Agricultural Trade in Asia

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“…Their TFP growth record refl ects this. Indeed, the decade of the 1970s shows negative TFP growth in this region (Ludena et al 2006). This is followed by some improvement in the 1980s and rapidly accelerating productivity growth in the 1990s, following the collapse of the Soviet Union and the opening up of the Eastern bloc.…”

“…4 The shares used in this process are based on the value of production in 2001, as reported by FAO (see Ludena et al 2006), Appendix Table A3. These directional measures are adjusted by a region-specifi c adjustment factor so that they are consistent with the aggregate agriculture productivity estimate calculated from the traditional Malmquist index (Ludena et al 2006). Not only does this ensure comparability with other studies of agricultural TFP, it also renders these estimates usable in projection frameworks that do not embody the directional productivity concept.…”