Profilalkotás a terrorelhárításban – profilozzuk-e a magányos elkövetőket?

Abstract

Összefoglalás. Jelen tanulmány célja a magányos elkövetők megismerése mellett annak körüljárása, hogy mely módszerek lehetnek hasznosíthatók az ellenük folyó harcban, illetve milyen problémákkal szembesülhetnek a témát kutató szakemberek. A szakirodalom áttekintésével képet kaphatunk általános profiljukról. Tekintettel azonban arra, hogy a magányos elkövetők kevés olyan tulajdonsággal rendelkeznek, amelyek megkülönböztetik őket másoktól, elmondhatjuk, hogy megbízhatóan nem profilozhatók. Továbbá a profilalkotás módszere csak bizonyos esetekben segítheti az ellenük folyó küzdelmet, hiszen a módszer célja egy már megtörtént bűncselekmény elemzése. A terrorcselekmények esetében pedig a hangsúly azok megelőzésén van, melyben elsősorban a kockázatelemzési és társadalmi jelzőrendszerek nyújthatnak segítséget. Summary. The aim of this study is to understand the lone actor terrorist and to discuss which methods can be used to combat this specific type of terrorist. We will review the main research findings on lone actors to understand their general profile. Lone perpetrators are generally male and under 50 years of age. A review of the literature suggests that there are some characteristics which lone actors have in common, which relate to their behaviour prior to the terrorist offence. Furthermore, there is a higher prevalence of mental disorders among lone offenders compared to both the general population and organised terrorist offenders. However, this cannot be considered as a causal factor. Given the fact that lone offenders have few characteristics that distinguish them measurably from other types of terrorist offenders, or even from society, it can be said that they cannot be reliably profiled. The small amount of information and data sets available to researchers (the closed treatment of case details) also makes analysis and scientific investigation difficult. Furthermore, the profiling method can only help in certain cases, since the aim of profiling is to analyse an already existing, unknown offender. In the case of terrorist offences, the focus is on prevention and deterrence, where risk analysis and social alarm systems can be of particular help. We briefly present the TRAP-18 risk analysis tool, which has proven useful in assessing the risk of lone offences. The emergence of online space provides a new platform for radical organisations, and thus for counter-terrorism services, to detect extremist groups and individuals in virtual platforms. Open source information can also help risk analysis, and if used professionally, can provide very specific information about a targeted individual. Due to the limitations of this paper, the radicalisation processes of lone offenders, as a very important part of the subject, will not be discussed, and this article will focus on the differences between the methods and their practical aspects. Overall, the benefits of profiling lone offenders are not essentially practical work, but rather in supporting the development of risk analysis methods and as part of the cognition process.