The maximal lactate steady state (MLSS) is a well-known gold standard method for determining the aerobic capacity of athletic horses. Owing to its high cost and complex execution, there is a search for standardized exercise tests that can predict this value in a single session. One of the methods described for this purpose is the lactate minimum test (LMT), which could be more accurate despite being adequate to predict MLSS. This study aimed to examine the impact of training on the speed corresponding to lactate minimum speed (LMS) and to apply new mathematical methods to evaluate the fitness level of horses based on the curve obtained by the LMT. Ten Arabian horses underwent a 6-week training program based on LMS calculated by second-degree polynomial regression (LMSP). In addition, the LMS was also determined by visual inspection (LMSV), bi-segmented linear regression (LMSBI) and spline regression (LMSS). From the curve obtained during the LMT, it was possible to calculate angles α, β and ω, as well as the total area under the curve (AUCTOTAL) before (AUCPRELMS) and after (AUCPOSLMS) the LMS. The methods for determining the LMS were evaluated by ANOVA, intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) and effect size (ES) by Cohen’s d test. The Pearson correlation coefficient (r) between the proposed LMS determination methods and other mathematical methods was also calculated. Despite showing a good correlation (ICC >0.7), the LMS determination methods differed from each other (p < 0.05), albeit without a significant difference resulting from conditioning. There were reductions in α:β ratio, angle α, and AUCPOSTLMS, with the latter indicating lower lactate accumulation in the incremental phase of LMT after conditioning, in addition to an improvement in the animals’ aerobic capacity. Considering that the most common methods for determining the LMS are applicable yet with low sensitivity for conditioning assessment, the approaches proposed herein can aid in analyzing the aerobic capacity of horses subjected to LMT. The mathematical models presented in this paper have the potential to be applied in human lactate-guided training program trials with a comparable study basis.