S_mmary Several studies have now shown that women with operable breast cancer undergoing tumour excision during the luteal phase of the menstrual cycle have a better prognosis than those having surgery during the follicular phase. As part of a prospective study of prognostic factors in breast cancer, blood was taken at the time of surgery. Between 1975 and1992 this was available from 289 premenopausal women within 3 days of tumour excision. All were treated by either modified radical mastectomy or breast conservation including axillary ckarance and the date of last menstrual period (LMP) was known in 239 (80%) cases. Blood samples were assayed for both oestradiol (E2) and progesterone (P). Because of the wide inter-individual variation in E2 levels there was no clear relationship between E2 and LMP. However, using a running mean smoothing technique the expected cyclical variation could be discemed. There was no significant association between E2 and survivaL Smoothing of the P data yielded a pattern similar to the normal hormone profile. Those cases with a progesterone level of 4 ng ml-I or more had a significantly better survival than those with a level <4 ng ml-'. This was especially clear in node-positive patients (P<0.01). The possibility of misclassification of menstrual cycle status, because of misreported LMP, has been minimised by applying an independent hormonal measurement (P) of cycle activity. This parameter will also identify women who may be undergoing anovular cycles. Thus this study has confirmed that a raised level of progesterone at the time of tumour excision is associated with an improvement in prognosis for women with operable breast cancer. Although some other centres reported similar findings (Senie et al., 1991;Saad et al., 1994; Veronesi et al., 1994) there have been other negative studies (Powles et al., 1991;Sainsbury et al., 1991;Low et al., 1991). There are major difficulties in comparing these published results partly because of differences in timings used, errors in selfreporting, anovular cycles and possible variations in treatment. Despite this, a recent meta-analysis demonstrated that overall there is a significant effect of timing of surgery on prognosis .Because all the studies were based upon retrospective data, Badwe et al. (1994) attempted to overcome these problems by measuring oestradiol (E2) and progesterone (P) on stored serum from 271 premenopausal patients operated upon between 1975 and 1985. Taking a cut-off of > 1.5 ng ml-' of P there was a significantly better prognosis in nodepositive cases with higher P levels. Further blood samples were available from 200 other patients operated on between 1979 and 1992, and concentrations of both E2 and P were assayed in these and combined with the previous results. This report describes the influence of menstrual cycle on the prognosis of an enlarged cohort of 471 premenopausal cases of operable breast cancer.
Material and metKods PatientsBetween 1975 and 1992 a total of 1271 premenopausal patients presented to Guy's Hospit...