Prognosis of the socioeconomic burden of chronic hepatitis C virus infection (genotype 1) in realization of various scenarios of its spread in the Republic of Bashkortostan

Лакман, И. А.; Galyamov, A.F.; Валишин, Д. А.

doi:10.20953/1729-9225-2016-3-67-74

Cited by 4 publications

(1 citation statement)

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“…Conclusions. First, the variety of diseases that individuals encounter during their life, second, the degree of readiness of the body to fight these diseases in different periods of life, and third, the continuous improvement of treatment methods determine the rel- This study made it possible to determine significant changes in the structure of mortality in the Republic of Bashkortostan due to the main causes: a decrease in mortality from malignant neoplasms in the last five years and from injuries and respiratory diseases in the last ten years, an increase in mortality from diseases of the digestive system and infections (mainly due to the higher incidence of chronic hepatitis B and C [27]), and opposite changes in mortality from diseases of the circulatory system in men and women.…”

Section: Results Of Forecastingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Predicting Mortality by Causes in the Republic of Bashkortostan Using the Lee–Carter Model

Лакман

Аскаров

Прудников

et al. 2021

Stud. Russ. Econ. Dev.

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This paper analyzes and predicts age-sex mortality rates by causes in the Republic of Bashkortostan. The following methods of analysis were used: the Lee-Carter model, singular value decomposition, and ARIMA-modeling. The forecast results suggest that by 2025 the Republic of Bashkortostan will have lower mortality due to malignant neoplasms in all age groups, except for the 70+ group for women and 50+ age groups for men; lower mortality due to diseases of the circulatory system in all age groups for men and higher mortality in 45+ age groups for women; lower mortality due to injuries in all age groups for both sexes; no significant changes in mortality due to respiratory diseases; increased mortality from gastrointestinal diseases for both sexes at all ages, except for children; higher mortality due to infections at 20-54 for men and 20-64 for women; and almost half lower mortality from infections in the age group of 0-4 years for both sexes.

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Section: Results Of Forecastingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Predicting Mortality by Causes in the Republic of Bashkortostan Using the Lee–Carter Model

Лакман

Аскаров

Прудников

et al. 2021

Stud. Russ. Econ. Dev.

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Economic burden of chronic viral hepatitis C

et al. 2022

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Background. The spread of chronic viral hepatitis C (CVHC) among the population entails significant costs for society, both direct, associated with the treatment of such patients, and indirect, associated with the shortfall in fiscal payments to the budget, due to the disability of this category of patients. Therefore, an important task remains to assess the global economic burden of the disease, taking into account the pathological conditions of the human body associated with it.Objective: to systematize studies of published sources devoted to assessing the global economic burden of chronic viral hepatitis C.Material and methods. A feature of the proposed review design is paying attention not only to the objects of assessment under study, but also to the instrumental (including mathematical) means of scenario assessment of the global burden. The study analyzed 29 sources published between 2014 and 2020 and dedicated to assessing and forecasting the global economic burden of CVHC both in individual countries and continents as a whole, and in individual regions of countries. The main criterion for the selection of studies was the availability of an estimate of the global burden of CVHC, taking into account the use of direct antiviral drugs for the treatment of hepatitis C. The search was conducted in PubMed/MEDLINE and eLibrary databases, and in the ResearchGate network.Results. Of the 29 analyzed sources, 40% of the works consider the burden for CVHC only of certain genotypes; in the overwhelming number of articles (80%), when assessing the burden, the distribution of patients by the degree of liver fibrosis is taken into account. In 50% of the studies reviewed, quality of life adjustment tools (QALY or DALY) were used to estimate the global economic burden. A third of the publications took into account both the direct costs of treating CVHC and indirect costs, including those associated with a shortfall in the contribution to the gross national product due to temporary or permanent disability of this category of patients.Conclusion. The analysis showed that interest in assessing the global burden of CVHC began to appear in recent years, when expensive directacting antivirals for the treatment appeared. This is explained by the emergence of a question about the cost of implementing a scenario in which by a certain year it will be possible to completely exclude the spread of the disease. The results of this work may be useful in conducting such studies, including the determining of their design and the use of modern mathematical modeling tools.

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Modiﬁcation of Epidemiological Model for Predicting the Development of a Socially Signiﬁcant Infection (by the Example of Chronic Viral Hepatitis C)

Yakhina

2022

Statistika i ekonominka

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Purpose of the study: to develop, evaluate the effectiveness and applicability of an epidemiological model for the development of chronic viral hepatitis C, with the ability to predict the number of people who need to be tested for the presence of the virus.Materials and methods. In our study, we used official data for the Republic of Bashkortostan on the spread of chronic viral hepatitis C (annual dynamics of cases) in the period from 2005 to 2020, which were provided at our request by the Republican Clinical Infectious Diseases Hospital. Demographic indicators for births and deaths were taken from the annual statistical report of Bashkortostanstat. The study considered 2 mathematical models: 1) Model SIR considers three groups: susceptible (those who have not yet become infected), infected and dropouts (those who have recovered or died). 2) The STIRD model is the SIR model, improved by the author, which takes into account five population groups: susceptible (those who have not yet become infected), tested (those who have been in contact with the infected people and require a test to clarify the diagnosis), infected, dropouts (those who recovered) and deceased.Results: from 2015 to 2017, the model provided representative data on the forecast of the infected people, the error was about 1.5-4%, but after this period, starting from 2018, the error rate became critical and the model lost its representativeness. To explain this phenomenon, there are 2 reasons: the first is the easy availability of drugs for the treatment of chronic hepatitis C, the second is the need to use Markov models in the model, since the calculation does not take into account the dynamics of changes in the coefficients of the model. As a result of the coronavirus pandemic in 2020, the error was more than 166%, this is due to a decrease in contacts between people and, as a result, a sharp decrease in the incidence of chronic hepatitis C.Conclusion. The complete epidemiological STIRD model proposed by the author (taking into account the demographic change in the structure of the population) has shown itself well in medium-term forecasting up to three years. A significant advantage of this model specification compared to other epidemiological models is the ability to predict the number of diagnostic laboratory tests needed to detect a virus in humans. This is important, since the diagnosis and treatment of chronic hepatitis C is covered from compulsory medical insurance and regional budgets. Epidemiological modeling opens up great opportunities for developing scenarios for combating viral hepatitis C, especially with its chronic form, because, according to WHO, each country has the opportunity to completely get rid of this socially significant infection by 2030.

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Prognosis of the socioeconomic burden of chronic hepatitis C virus infection (genotype 1) in realization of various scenarios of its spread in the Republic of Bashkortostan

Cited by 4 publications

References 0 publications

Predicting Mortality by Causes in the Republic of Bashkortostan Using the Lee–Carter Model

Predicting Mortality by Causes in the Republic of Bashkortostan Using the Lee–Carter Model

Economic burden of chronic viral hepatitis C

Modiﬁcation of Epidemiological Model for Predicting the Development of a Socially Signiﬁcant Infection (by the Example of Chronic Viral Hepatitis C)

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