Prognosis of topography changes in the impact of floods (Itajubá/MG – Brazil)

Abstract

With increasing urbanization, some decision-makers often take inappropriate actions that affect the environment due to a lack of technical knowledge or personal interests. In the case of areas with recurrent flooding, irregular occupation can cause a series of environmental and economic problems. The Industrial District of the municipality of Itajubá-MG has been experiencing accelerated occupation and noticeable morphometric changes. To predict the impact of these changes in land use and occupation, this study seeks to establish flood diagnosis between 2005 and 2021, and project a future scenario until the year 2030. This article intends to assess the impacts caused by floods. The HEC-RAS software was utilized to simulate five flood propagations under six different occupation scenarios. Simulations were analyzed at eight control sites throughout the study area. The results indicate that, over the years, as a result of increasing occupation in this area, flood damming is expected to occur in the region upstream of the landfills. However, due to the proportionality of the area, these damming heights are considered irrelevant, as they do not exacerbate the damage caused by floods. In some cases, they even lead to a reduction in the flooded area in the Industrial District.